9.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – TV-Internet Convergence

Posted by admin on December 31st, 2009
TV-Internet Convergence
Virtually everywhere you look there are video screens. You see them in bars, on elevators, in the back of taxis, and on airplanes. Even most cell phones have now have video screens. Some are connected to the Internet and others are connected to cable television.
In the future, people will look back at this time and see it as very confusing. Corporate turf battles have slowed the promise of the everything display where all content is available through all screens. And in many cases the public wasn’t ready to make the leap. All of that is about to change.
Cable TV companies and the major television networks are not going to like the years ahead as their market shares of the video content world begin to dwindle.
Until now, consumers have felt ill prepared to deal with the dizzying array of options when they enter an electronics store and manufacturers have interpreted that confusion as a marketplace not ready to make the switch.
Greg Belloni at Sony says, “Our stance is that consumers don’t want an Internet-like experience with their TVs, and we’re really not focused on bringing anything other than Internet video or widgets to our sets right now.” A widget is an industry term for narrow channels of Internet programming like YouTube or Hulu.
Bob Scaglione, Senior VP of Marketing at the Sharp voiced a similar comment. “I don’t think that consumers are yet ready to access all content on the Internet on their TV. For now, it’s more important to deliver content consumers want on a TV and let them do their browsing on a PC.”
Industry analysts also make the point that watching television is an entertainment activity where people lean back in their couch and disengage. Browsing the Internet, as the thinking goes, is a more immersive, lean forward activity, where the brain is in both output and input mode.
However, that argument has already been disproved with the iPhone, a do-everything device that has met with raging success.
Most of the problems leading up to the convergence have centered around the design of the interface. Consumers have become well-versed in working with browsers and surfing the Internet. And most have logged time working with game controllers found in the likes of Wii and Xbox. But they feel like they took a step back in time when they try to work the cable TV controls to access a television show or movie.
The Consumer Electronics Show next week in Las Vegas will feature TVs with direct Internet connectivity, or with on-screen access to content sites such as YouTube, Blockbuster and Netflix. As online video becomes intermingled with the living-room TV experience, a new consumer-friendly television interface will emerge, and downloading and streaming content services will take on a major role in the home entertainment ecosystem.
Here are some of the key data points to consider:
• The FCC recently announced it is moving forward with plans that will ensure broadband Internet access is available to virtually all households.
• Computers have penetrated 74% of American homes, but televisions are in 99% of all homes. Adding Internet to television will improve market penetration of the web by 25%.
• A recent survey by Deloitte showed that 65% of Internet users want online content available on their televisions with the younger generations pushing the hardest to switch.
• In Sao Paulo, a consortium of university researchers is nearly finished with a five-year digital TV project that promises to bring low-cost, high-quality broadcasts and TV-internet convergence to 50 million Brazilian households.
• In October, Intel announced its own TV-centric SoC (system-on-chip) chip, and other semiconductor designers and manufacturers are following close behind.
With the economy showing signs of improvement, and people have already started to wash their hands to rid themselves of the past decade, the consumer marketplace is preparing for some long overdue changes.
PREDICTIONS:
• Within 5 years, over 95% of all new televisions will be broadband Internet compatible.
• Within 10 years, cable television set top boxes will no longer exist.
OPPORTUNITIES:
If Apple were to start manufacturing their own televisions, they would quickly dominate the consumer TV marketplace because they know how to build an interface. Significant opportunities will be found in the design and implementation of next generation interfaces.
Video search technologies continue to be an area ripe for innovation. So far no one solution has really risen to the level where video search results are comparable to searching text.
Major opportunities can also be found in the aggregation and delivery of video content, and most importantly, the advertising and marketing mechanisms used to monetize the content.

TV-Internet Convergence 575

Virtually everywhere you look there are video screens. You see them in bars and restaurants, on elevators, in the back of taxis, and on airplanes. Even most cell phones have now have video screens. Some are connected to the Internet and others are connected to cable television, two distinctly different uses for what amounts to the same screen technology.

In the future, people will look back at this time and see it as very confusing. Corporate turf battles have slowed the promise of the everything display where all content is available through all screens. And in many cases the public wasn’t ready to make the leap. All of that is about to change.

Cable TV companies and the major television networks are not going to like the years ahead as their market shares of the video content world begin to dwindle.

Read the rest of this entry »

business trends, historical perspective, new strategy, prediction, social trends, technology trends 1 Comment »

8.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – Alternatives to Incarceration

Posted by admin on December 30th, 2009
Alternatives to Incarceration – In a country that claims to be the land of the free, the number of people under the control of the U.S. corrections system has exploded over the last 25 years to more than 7.3 million, or 1 in every 31 U.S. adults, according to a report released by the Pew Center on the States. The actual number of people behind bars rose to 2.3 million, nearly five times more than the world’s average.
The U.S. currently boasts the highest rate of incarceration of any country at any time in history. We also have the greatest number of laws of any country at any time in history, laws created by nearly 90,000 separate governmental entities, a spaghetti mess of rules and regulation so complicated that virtually any person can get tripped up. One simple mistake may very well end up with the person being incarcerated, and it goes downhill from there.
Incarceration is a system that breeds failure.
On the prisoner level, an incoming prisoner is instantly immersed in an “us vs. them” mindset as their surrounding community is transformed into the worst of all possible social circles.
On the operational level, success in the prison industry is not measured by how many lives have been improved, but rather on occupancy levels, the number of prison incidents and escape attempts, and how well the budget is managed.
On the justice system level, more prisoners mean more money. Police and court systems improve their standing in the justice community through the sheer volume of cases they handle. They are incentivized to “create more criminals” because more criminals mean more money.
The outrageousness of the overreaching authority called the U.S. justice system can be found in the system itself. There are no checks and balances on the system level for the criminal justice system.
Authorities will be hard pressed to argue that higher incarceration rates are warranted in the U.S. because of an inferior gene pool. They will also be hard pressed to argue that the system works well. A 2002 study survey showed that among nearly 275,000 prisoners released, 67.5% were rearrested within 3 years, and 51.8% went back in prison.
Making matters worse, 35% of the people entering prisons in the U.S. are there for violating parole.
Some minority groups are being particularly hard hit. Jeremy Travis, President of John Jay College of Criminal Justice puts it this way. “On a national level, an African-American man today has a 30 percent lifetime chance of serving at least one year in prison. I would like to be optimistic about the likelihood of reversing this reality and returning to the status quo of 1972, but I think the chances of even getting close to that are slim. I think we have to recognize that we now live—regrettably in my view—in an era of mass incarceration.”
Martin Horn, NY City Corrections Commissioner, voices a similar concern. “We are creating a culture of imprisonment; we are turbo-charging whatever is going wrong in those young people’s lives.”
In addition to the great human toll of incarceration, $68 billion of our taxpayer dollars has been committed to pay for this travesty.
In the past two decades, state general fund spending on corrections increased by more than 300%, outpacing other essential government services like education, transportation, and public assistance.
But things may finally be looking up. We are simply too broke to keep locking people up.
Incarceration rates in 30 states declined last year. Could this be an indication that the $22,000 per year spent on housing prisoners is starting to outweigh the benefit. Fact is that people coming out of the system are worse than when they went in, and virtually all of them will eventually make it back into society.
The U.S. has constructed a massively bureaucratic justice system that feeds off the missteps of its citizens, a system that it can no longer afford. As a result, new systems are coming to light.
Restorative Justice is one such approach where offenders are brought into the same room with the people they harmed and encouraged to take responsibility for their actions. Sometimes they agree to repair or pay for the damage, return stolen money, or perform community service
In Longmont, Colorado, Chief of Police Mike Butler has been a pioneer in Restorative Justice techniques, applying it in more than 1,200 cases with an amazing 90% success rate.
“We work with people before the lawyers get involved and before they enter the courts,” says Butler. “By doing this, we have been able to eliminate most of the costs and give the offenders a reasonable shot at turning their life around.”
These offenders are given a chance to meet with their victims and community members in a respectful process where they can learn the full impact of their crime and agree to repair their harm. On average 90% complete their agreements and are welcomed back to the community. What a different model from “lock ‘em up!”
Restorative Justice is a balance between the rights of offenders and the needs of victims. Perhaps better stated, it is a balance between the need to rehabilitate offenders and the duty to protect the public.
You might think it is dangerous to allow lawbreakers back into the community, yet the opposite appears to be true. The average re-arrest rate for offenders who participate in Longmont’s restorative justice program is 10%.
Compare that to the nearly 70% re-arrest rate for the national penal system. According to participant feedback data, every group engaged in the Longmont program – including victims, offenders, parents and community members – reported over 95% satisfaction with their restorative justice experience.
In restorative justice, because victims are heard and offenders repair the harm of their crime, they become higher functioning citizens able to work and make a contribution to their community, including paying their share of taxes.
So why hasn’t Restorative Justice caught on in a big way yet? It’s because no one stands to profit individually from the switch. Therein lies the crux of the problem.
PREDICTION:
• Even though the signals are weak, the system is too broken to be maintained. Look for the U.S. prison population to decline by over 25% over the next ten years.
• Look for a significant defunding of the justice system and a radically new set of criteria for measuring success.
OPPORTUNITIES:

Restorative Justice 676

In a country that claims to be the land of the free, the number of people under the control of the U.S. corrections system has exploded over the last 25 years to more than 7.3 million, or 1 in every 31 U.S. adults, according to a report released by the Pew Center on the States. The actual number of people behind bars rose to 2.3 million, nearly five times more than the world’s average.

The U.S. currently boasts the highest rate of incarceration of any country at any time in history, a full 25% of the world’s prison population. We also have the greatest number of laws of any country at any time in history, laws created by nearly 90,000 separate governmental entities. This spaghetti mess of rules and regulation is so complicated that virtually any person can get tripped up by them. One simple mistake may very well result in incarceration, and it goes downhill from there.

Read the rest of this entry »

historical perspective, new strategy, people making a difference, powerful idea, social trends 2 Comments »

7.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – Colleges Face the Perfect Storm

Posted by admin on December 30th, 2009
Colleges Face the Perfect Storm
After looking at all the signals, there is no other way to describe it. Colleges are under attack.
Several legs of the financial stools upon which they are sitting have been kicked out from under them, forcing higher tuition rates on an already cautious base of consumers.
To the carnivores of the free enterprise system, the slow lumbering gate of colleges today makes them look like easy prey. But they bring with them tremendous inertia and the longstanding loyalties and traditions of generations past.
The true effects of this storm front have been masked hirer enrollments, as people without jobs opt to go back to school and hit the reset button on their next career.
Much like Henry Ford’s “control everything” approach to building cars at the River Rouge Plant where raw materials were brought into one end and finished cars rolled out the other end, colleges have maintained tight control over virtually every aspect of the academic food change.
Professors are carefully recruited, classroom times and schedules are thoroughly planned, courses are tightly prepared, degrees are framed around in-house talent, and academic accomplishments are meticulously positioned to help brand the experience.
Those days are numbered.
While there are many areas subject to change, the primary attack points will be the six areas where colleges are most vulnerable:
1. Money – As the cost of colleges skyrockets, student loans and financing are becoming harder to get. Here’s what’s going on.
Many states are hurting financially, and they are cutting their support for colleges. As an example, ten years ago the price of tuition at the University of Virginia, excluding room and board, was just over $4,000 for in-state students and nearly $17,000 for out-of-state students per year. Now it’s nearly $10,000 and $32,000, respectively.
Similarly, the State of California slashed their support for colleges by 20% causing the state board of regents to increase tuition by 32% in 2010.
Exacerbating the deficits are losses to college endowments, which declined significantly with the losing stocks in their portfolios.
At the same, student loans are getting hard to come by. Students can individually sign up for the government-backed Stafford loans, but they have limits of $5,500 a year. The other major type of federally backed student loan – the Parent PLUS – has no limit, but it requires the parents to co-sign, making them responsible for repayment. Making things even worse, the interest rates for these loans have nearly doubled in the past five years.
Most college students have relied heavily on credit cards to handle personal expenses while they were in college. However, congress passed a bill in May that will dramatically restrict the issuance of credit cards to anyone younger than 21. Consumer groups helped push the measure through because credit card companies have been praying relentlessly on naive college kids, charging hidden fees and exorbitant rates. According to Sallie Mae, 84 percent of college students have credit cards, carrying balances of more than $3,000.
Parents are also struggling to help out because they are losing access to home equity loans. The availability of money to homeowners through home-equity lines of credit has fallen by 25 percent in the U.S., to $538 billion, since the end of 2007, according to federal data.
In our fast-paced society, student thinking can change quickly, and the forest of red flags now being raised spells troubling times ahead.
With entrepreneurial minds cleverly attacking the flow of money currently being allocated to colleges, even seemingly minor changes will have profound effects as revenue streams change course and build momentum around alternative forms of education.
2. Courses – Our existing semester and quarter-based college schedules are a poor match for today’s plugged-in, hyper-jacked students. Passed down from generations past, the current timetables for courses spread out over 8-12 weeks only work for an increasingly small segment of society, leaving most working adults to fend for themselves.
With courses being so narrowly defined, colleges are leaving massive opportunities up for grabs, and the vultures are beginning to circle.
Courses are on the verge of being fragmented into smaller, faster learning units. The goal will be to make individual courses bite-sized morsels of learning that can be fit into virtually anyone’s schedule.
Similar to the way Wikipedia and iTunes have evolved future courseware authoring systems will be rooted in a templated process that allows topical experts to turn their expertise into quick learning modules. With the proper monetization system where money is parceled out to course authors as well as other critical elements in the delivery system, the resulting structure will become an organic explosion of easily digestible knowledge.
Courses will be available on-demand, anywhere, anytime, to satisfy virtually any need, desire, or interest. They will be easily affordable, universally available, and presented to the students in a fashion most comprehendible to their style of learning.
3. Teachers – As new economic realities hits college campuses, their first impulse will be to cut staff. Some will attempt to limit the damage to wage freezes and curtailed hiring, but others will begin to roll out the pink slips.
Research institutions will focus heavily on grants and corporate alliances to rebuild the revenue streams of the past.
As the prospects for a long-term future inside academia grow dim, corporations will take notice of the fertile talent base and begin offering “greener pastures” for professors and teachers.
Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter once described entrepreneurial innovation as a “perennial gale of creative destruction,” forcing existing companies to adapt or fail. “Economic progress in capitalist society,” he declared, “means turmoil.”
4. Classrooms – There has long been the pervasive notion that learning can take place only in a classroom. Even though schools use field trips and outdoor experiences to enhance education, the classroom remains a dominant central fixture in education today.
Classrooms are designed to focus attention, close off the rest of the world, and create a controllable environment where learning can take place. The person or education system that controls the classroom also controls the time when learning can take place, the students who will participate, the lighting, the sounds, the media used, the tools, the pace, the subject matter, and in many cases, the results.
However, classroom-centric education is not necessary for learning. Our need to physically “gather at the feet of the master” will be replaced with faster, easier systems for connecting thoughts and ideas. If the objective is simply to get credit for a course, the convenience of an anytime, anyplace delivery mechanism will be the most salable feature. For students who want to truly understand the material, a more apprentice-like approach will serve as the primary attractor.
In the future, the cost and overhead burden of maintaining classroom space will be closely scrutinized as financial pressures force colleges to get creative. Each change will feel like a grand experiment, but the advantage will swing towards the virtual classroom where classroom schedules and alarm clocks no longer matter.
5. Credits – What types of learning are credit-worthy?
In the future, this question will be at the heart of new course offerings as they work their way into the marketplace.
Learning takes place from the moment a person wakes up in the morning until they fall asleep at night. In fact, most of the time, learning continues even when a person is sleeping. Yet only a small subset of the learning that takes place has been dubbed “credit worthy.”
College credits are a rare form of currency assigned to the value to what a student learns. As credits accumulate, they are used to “buy” a diploma.
Credit granting authority has been relegated to accredited institutions and is protected with laws and systems that are closely guarded by people inside the system. There is no one central authority for determining credit-worthiness. Rather, each institution, once accredited, decides for itself.
Credit-granting authority will be the most difficult area for outsiders to penetrate. But rest assured, when the economic foundation of colleges begins to feel shaky, the creative opportunists will begin to emerge.
Things like co-branded courses, experience-based credits, and alignment with professional society certifications will begin to emerge to provide much-needed revenue streams for colleges. Each opportunity will be a challenging decision, but every change will dilute the sanctity of the credit system, creating precedent for others to follow.
6. Status – Academic elites have long been drinking the Kool-Aid, espousing the gospel of superior standing in one’s community that can only be achieved through diplomas and scholarly achievement. With record numbers of college graduates now unemployed and under-employed, the bragging rights have begun to tarnish.
Academic accomplishments do not always translate into “functional member of society,” and society has been inventing hundreds, if not thousands, of new “status” markers. Professional certifications, individual accomplishments, note-worthy projects, association memberships, achievement awards, and even being employed by a pedigree corporation will often carry far more weight than the status gained through a college degree.
So what kind of status will be used to open doors in the future? Look for marketing messages to appear as “more valuable than a degree at Harvard” or “a better entrepreneurial experience than attending Stanford or MIT.”
A college’s ability to sell its elite status will increasingly be met with resistance as we move into an era of austere frugality.  Our claims of accomplishment, self-worth, confidence, and respect are destined to shift along with the changing face of the institution.
Rest assured the coming war on colleges is not being waged by societal misfits or some rouge band of college haters. Instead, it will come from some of our most admired companies and people with every bit as good of intentions as people working inside colleges.

Colleges - Perfect Storm 985

After looking at all the signals, there is no other way to describe it. Colleges are under attack.

Several legs of the financial stools upon which they are sitting have been kicked out from under them, forcing higher tuition rates on an already cautious base of consumers. But money is only part of the equation. Cultural shifts, technological advances, and changes in customer perceived value are all working to create the perfect storm for colleges.

To the carnivores of the free enterprise system, the slow lumbering gate of colleges today makes them look like easy prey. But they bring with them tremendous inertia and the longstanding loyalties and traditions of generations past.

The true effects of this storm front have been masked by higher enrollments, as people without jobs opt to go back to school and hit the reset button for their next career. But that is about to change.

Read the rest of this entry »

business trends, future scenario, historical perspective, new strategy, prediction, social trends 3 Comments »

6.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – The Turing Test for Avatars

Posted by admin on December 27th, 2009
Turing Test for Avatars
The recently released James Cameron thriller “Avatar” has set an entirely new standard for moviemaking, and in the process has given us a visualization of what the evolution of the avatar may lead to.
The term “avatar” was first coin by Neal Stephenson in his 1992 cyberpunk novel Snow Crash. The translation for avatar is ‘a form of self’- a virtual clone that has long meant nothing more than an intangible visualization. However, in the movie Avatar the envelope of understanding has been pushed far beyond the virtual world into a life-breathing physically-interactive being.
The power behind the movie is in its portrayal of the future. Much like DaVinci’s portrayal of human flight 400 years before the time of the Wright Brothers, the images became a visual goal, a rallying cry if you will, for a future yet to come. In Avatar, audiences become fully immersed in this exciting new vision of the future, and in doing so, begin to mentally plan for the technology that will take us there.
But, as much as we’d like to ratchet forward in time and move to that new level of sophistication, the movie glosses over many of the key technological stepping stones along the way.
An avatar today exists as little more than a cartoonish representation of ourselves, sent as our personal emissary to experience online, virtual worlds. Think of today’s avatars as the Model T version on a pathway that will eventually lead to flying cars. With each new generation of the avatar, they will become more life-like, growing in realism, pressing the limits of autonomy as we become more and more reliant on them for experiencing the world.
Eventually we will pass the Turing Test for Avatars.
In 1950, computer visionary Alan Turing proposed we would reach a time where a person entering a room with a human and a computer placed behind separate curtains would find it impossible to distinguish which was which through mere conversation. This idea of “passing the Turing Test has long served as a benchmark for bestowing humanoid qualities on a computer.
Raising the stakes even further, the Turing Test for Avatars will be a realism test with multiple stages of accomplishment.
• Stage One – An avatar become indistinguishable from a human on a two dimensional screen. Our visual and auditory senses will make it impossible to differentiate.
• Stage Two – Avatars will only live in the computer world for a short time longer. It is only a matter of time before they emerge from the computer and appear as visual beings, walking around among us. The Stage Two Turing Test for Avatars will yield a tree dimensional representation that is impossible to distinguish without touching.
• Stage Three – Once an avatar goes through the radical metamorphosis from an image that we see on a screen to a three dimensional being that joins us for dinner, carries on conversations with our friends, and serves as a stand-in for us at meetings, we will see work start on an even more realistic avatar, one that we can touch. The long held ideas of humanoid robots, and more recently cloned humans, will be superseded by organic avatars with human mannerism and capabilities so lifelike that they become indistinguishable from real humans.
The avatar of the future will become an extension of ourselves. The pain that we feel is the same pain that they feel, and vice versa. Like symbiotic twins separated only by a dimension or two, we are destined to become one with our avatars.
One key issue that will arise will be the autonomy with which our avatars can operate. How much freedom should an avatar have?
While some might envision the avatars to be the perfect clone of ourselves, the reality will be much different as frictions develop between us and the autonomous avatars that represent us. Men will find their girlfriends are more attracted to their avatars than to themselves, even having affairs with them. Avatars will eventually get their own apartments and start buying things for themselves. Some may even go off the deep end and start stealing money, even taking on insane addictions and diseases that only avatars can experience.
A series of self-help books will emerge that discuss “how we can improve our relationship with our avatars”, “how to keep our avatars from reproducing without our consent”, and “how to breed avatars for fun and profit”.
Only after going through all these technological evolutions will we get to the state of avatars portrayed in the James Cameron movie. We have a long ways to go.
PREDICTION:
• Within the next five years a series of prize competitions will emerge based on the Turing Test for Avatars
OPPORTUNITIES:
Great opportunities lie in our ability to create storylines, images, movies, and other visualizations of each of the intermediate steps leading up to stage three avatars.
Along with each new generation of avatar will come an exponential growth spurt of innovation surrounding the tools, games, and other forms of technology spawned by the avatar economies.

Turing test for avatars 564

The recently released James Cameron thriller Avatar has set an entirely new standard for moviemaking, and in the process has given us a visualization of what the evolution of the avatar may lead to.

The term “avatar” in the context of a digital computer-self was first coin by Neal Stephenson in his 1992 cyberpunk novel Snow Crash. Before that, the concept of avatar within Hinduism was associated with Vishnu, the preserver or sustainer aspect of God within the Hindu Trinity. The translation for avatar is ‘a form of self’- a virtual clone that has long meant nothing more than an intangible visualization. However, in the movie Avatar the envelope of understanding has been pushed far beyond the virtual world into a life-breathing physically-interactive being.

The power behind the movie is in its portrayal of the future. Much like DaVinci’s portrayal of human flight 400 years before the time of the Wright Brothers, the images became a visual goal, a rallying cry if you will, for a future yet to come. In Avatar, audiences become fully immersed in this exciting new vision of the future, and in doing so, begin to mentally plan for the technology that will take us there.

But, as much as we’d like to ratchet forward in time and move to that new level of sophistication, the movie glosses over many of the key technological stepping stones along the way.

Read the rest of this entry »

business trends, future scenario, new strategy, powerful idea, prediction, technology trends 3 Comments »

5.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – Bookless Libraries

Posted by admin on December 25th, 2009
Bookless Libraries – Many people regarded the September 2009 headline, “Cushing Academy
Goes Bookless” as more of a curiosity than a serious trend. The way Cushing Headmaster James Tracy put it, “Instead of a traditional library with 20,000 books, we’re building a virtual library where students will have access to millions of books.”
But underlying this blip on the radar screen lies a groundswell of innovation that promises a revolution in books. The book industry along with authors, publishers, and the online giants: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Yahoo are still arguing over the rights conveyed to each member of the value chain. Consumers, however, are simply looking for faster, cheaper, quicker access to books and information.
Beyond the issues of digital rights an entire new industry is emerging around interface devices with electronic book readers gaining tremendous market share. Amazon’s Kindle broke the ice in 2006 and is now joined by Sony, LG, Barnes & Noble, Apple, and others. 2009 saw the price of bookreaders drop by 50% to under $200. 2010 will see a similar plummet with some being offered for under $100. In less than 5 years bookreaders will cost less than $20 and become ubiquitous. The result will be a very chaotic downward spiral for the ink-on-paper publishing world.
In spite of the dwindling interest in books as a physical object, books themselves will flourish. The demand for well-produced literary works will continue to grow, but will transition in style and form as technology creates new ways for people to interact with authors and experts in the field.
Despite the objections of book lovers, the days of wandering through the stacks are coming to an end.
As the popularity of books in the printed form begins to dwindle, libraries will be faced with rethinking their role and the way they interact with their user constituency. Their purpose will still revolve around being a point of access for information, but will evolve into a center of culture, a media archive for the community, and a place where great ideas can spring to life.
Even with expanded services through the web, their greatest value will lie in their sense of place. They will remain a place where questions get answered but will also become a gathering place for people to meet people and teams are able to plan, network, and interact with the information before them.
Future libraries will become fluid structures for causing positive human collisions. Next generation tools and equipment will be a source of intellectual spontaneity, giving people the ability to produce audio, video, graphic, and other sensory works as a way to breathe life into their thinking.
The ultimate “library of the future” will be the home for highly relevant informational experiences, where great ideas are born, and people have access to the tools and facilities to act on their ideas.
PREDICTIONS:
• In less than 20 years, the majority of libraries will no longer have traditional printed books in them.
• Since digital libraries have a much smaller labor component, the demand for traditionally trained librarians will drop over the next 20 years to less than half of what it is today.
OPPORTUNITIES:
Along with the transformation of libraries will come a great opportunity to help them reinvent themselves. The technology component will continue to increase and support for the technology will create many new openings.

Bookless Libraries 726

Many people regarded the September 2009 headline, “Cushing Academy Goes Bookless” as more of a curiosity than a serious trend. The way Cushing Headmaster James Tracy put it, “Instead of a traditional library with 20,000 books, we’re building a virtual library where students will have access to millions of books.”

But underlying this blip on the radar screen lies a groundswell of innovation that promises a revolution in books. The book industry along with authors, publishers, and the online giants: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Yahoo are still arguing over the rights conveyed to each member of the value chain. Consumers, however, are simply looking for faster, cheaper, quicker way to access books and information.

Read the rest of this entry »

future scenario, powerful idea, prediction, social trends, technology trends 3 Comments »

4.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – The Personal Mobility Explosion

Posted by admin on December 23rd, 2009

Audi-snook-concept5

Personal Mobility Explosion
Pay close attention, there is a revolution brewing on the personal mobility end of the transportation spectrum.
Nothing symbolizes personal freedom more than our ability to travel from one place to another quickly, and efficiently. But for the most part, we’ve been putting all our eggs into one basket – the basket of automobile transportation.
In this post I will try to spell out the reasons why transportation is on the verge of dramatic change, and show you photos of a few of the unusual personal mobility devices that will play a key role in this revolution.
Transportation varies tremendously based on the country. As an example, in China, non-motorized transportation accounts for roughly 50% of all trips, and in India, the number is around 30%. But when it comes to public transportation, over 60% of the Indian population use bus and trains compared to 25% in China. The China and India statistics are vastly different from the U.S.
Some will argue that an efficient transportation system in the U.S. has led to a healthier economy. The US Bureau of Transit Statistics now shows over 243 million registered passenger vehicles in the US, which amounts to more than one for every licensed driver.
But cars are expensive. The average cost of car ownership in the US combining payments, maintenance, insurance, and licensing has mushroomed to over $10,000 per year, with California and Hawaii pushing the high end of $12,000 per year.
According to the U.S. Dept of Transportation, commuters in 2007 drove their vehicles over 3 trillion miles on a road system consisting of over 4 million miles of roadway. This is a dramatic increase from the 458 billion vehicle miles on 3.3 million miles of roadway in 1950.
The average car in the U.S. is driven 12,345 miles per year, or about 34 miles a day. Assuming an average speed of 30 mph, the average car is only in use 68 minutes a day. That means the remaining 95% of the time the car is sitting idle. From the standpoint of how well we are utilizing our natural resources, cars represent a hugely under-utilized resource.
As of lately, people and their love of cars has been shifting to a craving for something better. However, the “perfect car” doesn’t seem to exist. The perfect car is one that doesn’t pollute, is highly efficient, is only as big as necessary for the demands of the moment, makes virtually no noise, is extremely safe, and collapses into the size of a suitcase when not in use.
It is this quest for something better that is priming the market for unconventional vehicles. Below are a few of the alternative transportation vehicles coming out of the woodwork.
Since these vehicles fall outside of the current requirements for automobiles, many cities have chosen to ban them altogether until they can figure out what to do with them.
Our current infrastructure, the highway system, is all about cars. Whenever a smaller alternative transportation vehicle drives onto a highway, it’s at a significant disadvantage in terms of safety and risk. Currently there is no infrastructure – roads, trails, or pathways – designed for non-traditional forms of transportation.
Most importantly, any city that does not actively promote alternative transportation, will by default, encouraging more car usage. The one-size-fits-all thinking about cars has left some gaping holes in the transportation market, holes that some very ingenious entrepreneurs are attempting to fill.
Manufacturers and distributors of these vehicles are search desperately for alternative transportation friendly communities to work with. Therein lies the opportunity.
PREDICTIONS:  Within the next 5 years we will see over 1,000 new alternative transportation vehicles hit the marketplace. (Non-gas powered, light weight, smaller than car vehicles)
OPPORTUNTIES:
Create a classification scheme around size weight and speed of vehicles.

The Audi Snook – concept vehicle

Pay close attention, there is a revolution brewing on the personal mobility end of the transportation spectrum.

Nothing symbolizes personal freedom more than our ability to travel from one place to another quickly, and efficiently. But for the most part, we’ve been putting all our eggs into one basket – the basket of automobile transportation.

In this post I will try to spell out the reasons why transportation is on the verge of dramatic change, and show you photos of a few of the unusual personal mobility devices that will play a key role in this revolution.

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3.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – Forced Entrepreneurship

Posted by admin on December 22nd, 2009

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Forced Entrepreneurship
One of the overriding forces in 2010 will be the financial pressures stemming from the recession. The recession will not be ending anytime soon because Washington is too focused on the wrong issues, and the stimulus money is not being channeled to the people who are most likely to create the jobs.
The outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 8.7% of job seekers started their own businesses in second quarter 2009, a dramatic increase over the 2.7% during the last quarter of 2008.
May of the laid-off workers have simply reached the end of their rope. They have given up on sending out resumes and have concluded the only way to deal with today’s brutal job market is to start their own business. Even though they start out as reluctant business owners, and the learning curve is anything but smooth, once they get a sense of the true potential in controlling their own destiny, there is no turning back.
Whenever the economy takes a nosedive, it is typical for people to begin to dance with their “inner entrepreneur” and brainstorm ideas for launching their dream business. But today’s business climate no longer allows for people to wait for the ideal time or prefect conditions to make it happen.
When nothing else is working, they decide it’s time to blow the doors off their “comfort zone” and enter the “entrepreneur zone.”
Forced entrepreneurship often starts with project work, temp jobs, consulting gigs, or other opportunities for making money. Sometimes the work is done as a trade-out to just get a foot in the door. Very often one opportunity will lead to another, and a patchwork business plan begins to form in the person’s mind. Formal business plans are rare, but the key metrics for managing the operation begins to crystallize in their head.
The Internet is now enabling people and ideas to connect in ways never before possible. The business models that eventually spring to life often have little, if any, resemblance to their original idea for a dream business. But the fluid nature of the startup world is more than enough to keep them engaged.
To succeed as a forced entrepreneur, bootstrapping is king. They quickly learn to never spend a dime unless it is absolutely necessary. Their skills, talent, and ideas become a form currency that they can exchange for equally valued goods and services.
The web is an extraordinary tool not just for finding ways to do things for free, but for marketing ideas, find business partners and suppliers, and to run your entire operation on the cheap: keeping the books, interacting with customers, even turning a small idea into a big idea.
In 2008, 3.8 million companies had fewer than 10 workers, and they employed 12.4 million people, or roughly 11% of the private sector work force, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Don’t look for a lot of hiring with this crowd though. It’s far easier to work with people and not take them on as employees in today’s virtual work environment.
PREDICTIONS:
Within the new ten years we will see the all-time greatest wave of entrepreneurship hit the U.S. and the number of one-person “empire of one” entrepreneurs will more than double.
Many cities will begin to establish “business colonies” as next-generation incubators for growing their local economy.
OPPORTUNITIES:
Since no colleges or universities currently teach one-person entrepreneurship, there is great potential for training and study material.
Many projects call for an complete team to cover the entire range of talent and skills required. People who are good at assembling and managing virtual teams of solo entrepreneurs will find an endless stream of opportunities ahead.
Large and midsized companies that learn to master the fine art of engaging solo entrepreneurs on a project basis will quickly discover the wide range of talent available to them outside the normal hiring channels.

Forced entrepreneurship, making its way to a family near you

One of the overriding forces in 2010 will be the financial pressures stemming from the recession. The recession will not be ending anytime soon because Washington is too focused on the wrong issues, and the stimulus money is not being channeled to the people who are most likely to create the jobs.

The outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 8.7% of job seekers started their own businesses in second quarter 2009, a dramatic increase over the 2.7% during the last quarter of 2008.

May of the laid-off workers have simply reached the end of their rope. They have given up on sending out resumes and have concluded the only way to deal with today’s brutal job market is to start their own business. Even though they start out as reluctant business owners, and the learning curve is anything but smooth, once they get a sense of the true potential in controlling their own destiny, there is no turning back.

Whenever the economy takes a nosedive, it is typical for people to begin to dance with their “inner entrepreneur” and brainstorm ideas for launching their dream business. But today’s business climate no longer allows for people to wait for the ideal time or prefect conditions to make it happen.

When nothing else is working, they decide it’s time to blow the doors off their “comfort zone” and enter the “entrepreneur zone.”

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2.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – The Coming Legal Marijuana Era

Posted by admin on December 21st, 2009

6 marijuana 728w2

Legalizing Marijuana
With the hippie generation moving into the seat of power, many of the hard-line arguments for keeping marijuana on the same banned substance lists as heroine and cocaine are fading into the history books.
The challenge all along for those wishing for outright legalization of pot has been that it doesn’t exactly fall into the “good for you” category, parents raising small kids are afraid of it, and it would remove a substantial income stream from the very powerful justice system.
With local, state, and federal governments at odds over how to classify it, marijuana has become a rather confusing issue on many levels. Even though marijuana remains banned federally, the Obama administration has decided to end federal raids on pot-sellers in states that have legalized medical marijuana.
Indicators clearly point to an outright legalization of marijuana in the near future, but there will be some interesting twists and turns along the way.
Consider the following data points that are now forming clear signposts towards legalization:
• 13 states now allow for the legal use of medical marijuana with a doctor’s prescription and several others are considering it.
• Attitudes are changing. A recent Gallup poll showed 44% of the population supports legalizing marijuana, up from 25% in 1995.
• With groups collecting over 200,000 signatures for upcoming ballot issues in 2010, California will be voting on marijuana becoming a taxed and regulated substance similar to cigarettes and alcohol.
• On July 22, 2009, Oakland, CA became the first city in the US to approve a tax on marijuana.
Pro-legalization groups such as NORML argue that the U.S. has been squandering vast amounts of money and manpower chasing and locking up marijuana users, both of which could be used for more important things.
Many other consumer groups have begun to side with legalization. In 1997 Consumer Reports issued a statement saying that, “for patients with advanced AIDS and terminal cancer, the apparent benefits some derive from smoking marijuana outweigh any substantiated or even suspected risks.”
Marijuana is an industry with proven demand waiting to spring to life. However, the vast majority of people cannot envision it as a respectable industry with most conjuring up images of raucous teen parties, dealing with unsavory drug dealers, and smoking reefers.
The fact is that most stoners are terrible writers, so the biggest advocates are the worst communicators.
For marijuana to become legal on all levels, the fledgling industry will have to go through an extensive makeover with professional advertising and PR people entering the mix. One person will need to emerge as the voice of the industry, the rock star of pot, a credible authority who makes it onto the TV talk shows and leads the movement.
In the end, it will be less about the legalization and much more about the framework established to unleash the opportunity.
PREDICTIONS:
• Within ten years marijuana will emerge as a staple at most night clubs and parties.
• As part of a rebranding effort it will no longer be called marijuana, but some other name invented by Madison Avenue.
• After all the hype wears down, it will prove to be a much smaller industry than most have feared or anticipated. While still a lucrative field, the majority of money will be made on ancillary services.
OPPORTUNITIES:
The early-stage opportunity will be to reinvent the industry. The people who shape the industry will also help define the kinds of opportunities that it creates.
With a growing aversion to “smoking,” the style and form of marijuana will need to be shifted into edible and drinkable products.
The resulting industry will create thousands of new jobs in agriculture, processing plants, transportation, distribution, marketing, advertising, training, certification, regulators, and many more.

With the hippie generation moving into the seat of power, many of the hard-line arguments for keeping marijuana on the same banned substance lists as heroine and cocaine are fading into the history books.

The challenge all along for those wishing for outright legalization of pot has been that it doesn’t exactly fall into the “good for you” category, parents raising small kids are afraid of it, and it would remove a substantial income stream from the very powerful justice system.

With local, state, and federal governments at odds over how to classify it, marijuana has become a rather confusing issue on many levels. Even though marijuana remains banned federally, the Obama administration has decided to end federal raids on pot-sellers in states that have legalized medical marijuana.

Indicators clearly point to an outright legalization of marijuana in the near future, but there will be some interesting twists and turns along the way.

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1.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – The End of Golf

Posted by admin on December 20th, 2009

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Golf has hit a brick wall, a veritable trifecta of bad luck.

The End of Golf – Rest assured, golf won’t be going away anytime soon, but the current industry slump is only the beginning of a much larger trend.
Golf has hit a brick wall, a veritable trifecta of bad luck.
When you combine the fact that there are too many golf courses, declining revenue streams, record number of golf course bankruptcies, the implosion of the game’s only superstar, Tiger Woods, and an emerging youth population who would rather play Wii Golf than real golf, it becomes easy to see red flags getting raised instead of American flags at many of the nation’s country clubs.
The number of U.S. golfers peaked in 2005 at 30 million. Experts are estimating that most golf courses have lost 30% to 50% of their worth in the last two years. So far only 114 of the nation’s 16,000 or so golf courses have closed in the first 9 months of 2009, according to the National Golf Foundation. But that number masks the thousands currently operating in Chapter 11.
Most importantly, the financing has dried up. A bankrupt golf course doesn’t lend itself to any other development, and this is particularly true if the course is in the middle of a residential development. The neighbors won’t allow it. In short, golf courses are simply bad collateral.
PREDICTION:  Within the next 10 years over 25% of all golf courses will fail.
OPPORTUNITY:  There will be two significant opportunities arising from golf’s misfortune. The first, a bargain hunter’s dream of being able to purchase a first-class course out of bankruptcy for pennies on the dollar. With substantially lower debt and a more efficient business model, many golf courses will once again survive and thrive.
The second opportunity will come to those who devise a logical new development concept for golf courses. Courses come with vast primo landscaped acreage, and a set of neighbors who will torpedo anything that somehow diminishes the natural beauty of the community. It is a challenging environment, but one with huge upside for the right business model.

Rest assured, golf won’t be going away anytime soon, but the current industry slump is only the beginning of a much larger trend.

When you combine the fact that there are too many golf courses, declining revenue streams, record number of golf course bankruptcies, the implosion of the game’s only superstar, Tiger Woods, and an emerging youth population who would rather play Wii Golf than real golf, it becomes easy to see red flags getting raised instead of American flags at many of the nation’s country clubs.

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iTunes U – The Rise of the 800 Pound Guerrilla

Posted by admin on December 18th, 2009
In April 2009 Stanford University announced that its iPhone Application Programming course had broken the 1 million download mark from the Apple iTunes site. And it did it in record time – less than seven weeks.
The course is nothing more than a series of classroom videos being taught by a team of Apple engineers. But the price was set at that very attractive price point of “free.” One catch though, only people who were enrolled at Stanford University received credits for the course.
With over 200,000 courses from over 200 different institutions to pick from on iTunes U, and all of them free to anyone who wants to take them, Apple is quickly becoming the world leader in courseware aggregation. The obvious question to ask is “what is Apple’s motivation for doing this?” and “how do they intend to make money?”
History of iTunes U
Shortly after Apple opened its iTunes Store in April 2003, the company started receiving requests from colleges to post courses on the site. Initially the requests were directed to the podcast section, but as the numbers grew, Apple devised a strategy for adding an entirely new division.
iTunes U was formally in May 2007. The service was created to manage, distribute, and control access to educational audio and video content for students within a college or university as well as the broader Internet.
In October 2008, Apple hired Dr. Joel Podolny, the Dean of Yale University’s School of Management, to run what was quickly becoming known as Apple University. This move, while very curious to most Apple observers, signaled a much farther reaching strategy than what most were anticipating.
The Missing Pieces
While Apple is doing a good job of aggregating existing courses from existing institutions, they haven’t made any moves to open the floodgates, and we are talking serious floodgates here, to engage other potential courseware providers.
In our way of thinking, communications and search have been the two dominant forms of use for the Internet. However, the one application that could become far more dominant that either of those uses is education. What’s at stake is the creation of the largest and most influential site on the Web.
Here’s what’s missing:
* Easy Authoring Tools: Currently the realm of online course creation has been reserved to learning professionals, not topical experts or passionate amateurs. In much the same way Wikipedia started, a simple online system for creating new courses could cause a tsunami of new content to flood the Internet. Some will be good, but most will be below average. In the middle will be a few shining examples of unique new ways to present course content, and these will be the ones that the pave the way for the next wave.
* Courseware Standards: Existing college courses are too long, too dry, and too boring. While we may not be able to create standards that prevent boring content, we can certainly do something about the length. All courses need to be standardized around 60 minute (one-hour) course units. Standards can also be created for testing comprehension, student records, transcripts, pricing standards, and a variety of other variables that will help streamline an emerging new system.
* Profiling Engine: The system needs to know the student before it can recommend courses. Profiling software has been used for many things and can be easily adapted for this. The trick will be to imbed learning objects that can read the learning style and adapt the course to the precise level of student’s skills, knowledge and confidence.
* Recommendation Engine: After the completion of every course a recommendation engine needs to list several options for the next course, but the options need to be closely synced with the whims and desires of the student.
* Feedback System: Courseware authors need to have a real-time understanding of student engagement, confidence, achievement, and enjoyment.
* Credits and Certification: Every course that is completed needs to be accompanied with a system for marking the progression of the student. And the system needs to lead to levels of accomplishment as certified by the organization that bestow them.
* Courseware Monetization System: If iTunes can change $1.29 for a three minute song, they can easily charge $1-$5 for a one-hour course. Money can be parceled out to the course author, distribution system, recommendation engine, profiling engine, record-keeping company, and possibly a few more. A little friction in the system will help deter the spammers and those intent on disrupting the system.
Apple has dabbled some in the courseware authoring arena with the Woolamaloo Automator, but it’s still a far cry from the fully integrated modality agnostic, language agnostic system that we see coming. You can see a more extensive look at the future of colleges and universities.
Colleges are on the verge of a significant transformation, and Apple is currently in the driver’s seat. But as we have seen so many times in the online world, new players can spring to life over night, and one that is positioning itself as one of the key players is a little startup in Denver called SatoriEDU.
Newspapers, travel agencies, yellow pages and record labels are all industries that have been greatly affected by the Internet, and each of them tell a different version of what may lie ahead for colleges.
The current system was designed for slower times and a different culture. In a world going through major upheavals in technology, culture, and lifestyle, our current college system has continually rearranged the deck chairs, but has shown virtually no ability to grasp the bigger picture. The next couple years will indeed be fascinating to watch, and for Apple, it’s currently theirs to lose.

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In April 2009 Stanford University announced that its iPhone Application Programming course had broken the 1 million download mark from the Apple iTunes site. And it did it in record time – less than seven weeks.

The course is nothing more than a series of classroom videos being taught by a team of Apple engineers. But the price was set at that very attractive price point of “free.” One catch though, only people who were enrolled at Stanford University received credits for the course.

With over 200,000 courses from over 200 different institutions to pick from on iTunes U, and all of them free to anyone who wants to take them, Apple is quickly becoming the world leader in courseware aggregation. The obvious question to ask is “what is Apple’s motivation for doing this?” and “how do they intend to make money?”

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