9.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – TV-Internet Convergence

Posted by admin on December 31st, 2009
TV-Internet Convergence
Virtually everywhere you look there are video screens. You see them in bars, on elevators, in the back of taxis, and on airplanes. Even most cell phones have now have video screens. Some are connected to the Internet and others are connected to cable television.
In the future, people will look back at this time and see it as very confusing. Corporate turf battles have slowed the promise of the everything display where all content is available through all screens. And in many cases the public wasn’t ready to make the leap. All of that is about to change.
Cable TV companies and the major television networks are not going to like the years ahead as their market shares of the video content world begin to dwindle.
Until now, consumers have felt ill prepared to deal with the dizzying array of options when they enter an electronics store and manufacturers have interpreted that confusion as a marketplace not ready to make the switch.
Greg Belloni at Sony says, “Our stance is that consumers don’t want an Internet-like experience with their TVs, and we’re really not focused on bringing anything other than Internet video or widgets to our sets right now.” A widget is an industry term for narrow channels of Internet programming like YouTube or Hulu.
Bob Scaglione, Senior VP of Marketing at the Sharp voiced a similar comment. “I don’t think that consumers are yet ready to access all content on the Internet on their TV. For now, it’s more important to deliver content consumers want on a TV and let them do their browsing on a PC.”
Industry analysts also make the point that watching television is an entertainment activity where people lean back in their couch and disengage. Browsing the Internet, as the thinking goes, is a more immersive, lean forward activity, where the brain is in both output and input mode.
However, that argument has already been disproved with the iPhone, a do-everything device that has met with raging success.
Most of the problems leading up to the convergence have centered around the design of the interface. Consumers have become well-versed in working with browsers and surfing the Internet. And most have logged time working with game controllers found in the likes of Wii and Xbox. But they feel like they took a step back in time when they try to work the cable TV controls to access a television show or movie.
The Consumer Electronics Show next week in Las Vegas will feature TVs with direct Internet connectivity, or with on-screen access to content sites such as YouTube, Blockbuster and Netflix. As online video becomes intermingled with the living-room TV experience, a new consumer-friendly television interface will emerge, and downloading and streaming content services will take on a major role in the home entertainment ecosystem.
Here are some of the key data points to consider:
The FCC recently announced it is moving forward with plans that will ensure broadband Internet access is available to virtually all households.
Computers have penetrated 74% of American homes, but televisions are in 99% of all homes. Adding Internet to television will improve market penetration of the web by 25%.
A recent survey by Deloitte showed that 65% of Internet users want online content available on their televisions with the younger generations pushing the hardest to switch.
In Sao Paulo, a consortium of university researchers is nearly finished with a five-year digital TV project that promises to bring low-cost, high-quality broadcasts and TV-internet convergence to 50 million Brazilian households.
In October, Intel announced its own TV-centric SoC (system-on-chip) chip, and other semiconductor designers and manufacturers are following close behind.
With the economy showing signs of improvement, and people have already started to wash their hands to rid themselves of the past decade, the consumer marketplace is preparing for some long overdue changes.
PREDICTIONS:
Within 5 years, over 95% of all new televisions will be broadband Internet compatible.
Within 10 years, cable television set top boxes will no longer exist.
OPPORTUNITIES:
If Apple were to start manufacturing their own televisions, they would quickly dominate the consumer TV marketplace because they know how to build an interface. Significant opportunities will be found in the design and implementation of next generation interfaces.
Video search technologies continue to be an area ripe for innovation. So far no one solution has really risen to the level where video search results are comparable to searching text.
Major opportunities can also be found in the aggregation and delivery of video content, and most importantly, the advertising and marketing mechanisms used to monetize the content.

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Virtually everywhere you look there are video screens. You see them in bars and restaurants, on elevators, in the back of taxis, and on airplanes. Even most cell phones have now have video screens. Some are connected to the Internet and others are connected to cable television, two distinctly different uses for what amounts to the same screen technology.

In the future, people will look back at this time and see it as very confusing. Corporate turf battles have slowed the promise of the everything display where all content is available through all screens. And in many cases the public wasn’t ready to make the leap. All of that is about to change.

Cable TV companies and the major television networks are not going to like the years ahead as their market shares of the video content world begin to dwindle.

Read the rest of this entry »

8.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – Alternatives to Incarceration

Posted by admin on December 30th, 2009
Alternatives to Incarceration – In a country that claims to be the land of the free, the number of people under the control of the U.S. corrections system has exploded over the last 25 years to more than 7.3 million, or 1 in every 31 U.S. adults, according to a report released by the Pew Center on the States. The actual number of people behind bars rose to 2.3 million, nearly five times more than the world’s average.
The U.S. currently boasts the highest rate of incarceration of any country at any time in history. We also have the greatest number of laws of any country at any time in history, laws created by nearly 90,000 separate governmental entities, a spaghetti mess of rules and regulation so complicated that virtually any person can get tripped up. One simple mistake may very well end up with the person being incarcerated, and it goes downhill from there.
Incarceration is a system that breeds failure.
On the prisoner level, an incoming prisoner is instantly immersed in an “us vs. them” mindset as their surrounding community is transformed into the worst of all possible social circles.
On the operational level, success in the prison industry is not measured by how many lives have been improved, but rather on occupancy levels, the number of prison incidents and escape attempts, and how well the budget is managed.
On the justice system level, more prisoners mean more money. Police and court systems improve their standing in the justice community through the sheer volume of cases they handle. They are incentivized to “create more criminals” because more criminals mean more money.
The outrageousness of the overreaching authority called the U.S. justice system can be found in the system itself. There are no checks and balances on the system level for the criminal justice system.
Authorities will be hard pressed to argue that higher incarceration rates are warranted in the U.S. because of an inferior gene pool. They will also be hard pressed to argue that the system works well. A 2002 study survey showed that among nearly 275,000 prisoners released, 67.5% were rearrested within 3 years, and 51.8% went back in prison.
Making matters worse, 35% of the people entering prisons in the U.S. are there for violating parole.
Some minority groups are being particularly hard hit. Jeremy Travis, President of John Jay College of Criminal Justice puts it this way. “On a national level, an African-American man today has a 30 percent lifetime chance of serving at least one year in prison. I would like to be optimistic about the likelihood of reversing this reality and returning to the status quo of 1972, but I think the chances of even getting close to that are slim. I think we have to recognize that we now live—regrettably in my view—in an era of mass incarceration.”
Martin Horn, NY City Corrections Commissioner, voices a similar concern. “We are creating a culture of imprisonment; we are turbo-charging whatever is going wrong in those young people’s lives.”
In addition to the great human toll of incarceration, $68 billion of our taxpayer dollars has been committed to pay for this travesty.
In the past two decades, state general fund spending on corrections increased by more than 300%, outpacing other essential government services like education, transportation, and public assistance.
But things may finally be looking up. We are simply too broke to keep locking people up.
Incarceration rates in 30 states declined last year. Could this be an indication that the $22,000 per year spent on housing prisoners is starting to outweigh the benefit. Fact is that people coming out of the system are worse than when they went in, and virtually all of them will eventually make it back into society.
The U.S. has constructed a massively bureaucratic justice system that feeds off the missteps of its citizens, a system that it can no longer afford. As a result, new systems are coming to light.
Restorative Justice is one such approach where offenders are brought into the same room with the people they harmed and encouraged to take responsibility for their actions. Sometimes they agree to repair or pay for the damage, return stolen money, or perform community service
In Longmont, Colorado, Chief of Police Mike Butler has been a pioneer in Restorative Justice techniques, applying it in more than 1,200 cases with an amazing 90% success rate.
“We work with people before the lawyers get involved and before they enter the courts,” says Butler. “By doing this, we have been able to eliminate most of the costs and give the offenders a reasonable shot at turning their life around.”
These offenders are given a chance to meet with their victims and community members in a respectful process where they can learn the full impact of their crime and agree to repair their harm. On average 90% complete their agreements and are welcomed back to the community. What a different model from “lock ‘em up!”
Restorative Justice is a balance between the rights of offenders and the needs of victims. Perhaps better stated, it is a balance between the need to rehabilitate offenders and the duty to protect the public.
You might think it is dangerous to allow lawbreakers back into the community, yet the opposite appears to be true. The average re-arrest rate for offenders who participate in Longmont’s restorative justice program is 10%.
Compare that to the nearly 70% re-arrest rate for the national penal system. According to participant feedback data, every group engaged in the Longmont program – including victims, offenders, parents and community members – reported over 95% satisfaction with their restorative justice experience.
In restorative justice, because victims are heard and offenders repair the harm of their crime, they become higher functioning citizens able to work and make a contribution to their community, including paying their share of taxes.
So why hasn’t Restorative Justice caught on in a big way yet? It’s because no one stands to profit individually from the switch. Therein lies the crux of the problem.
PREDICTION:
Even though the signals are weak, the system is too broken to be maintained. Look for the U.S. prison population to decline by over 25% over the next ten years.
Look for a significant defunding of the justice system and a radically new set of criteria for measuring success.
OPPORTUNITIES:

Restorative Justice 676

In a country that claims to be the land of the free, the number of people under the control of the U.S. corrections system has exploded over the last 25 years to more than 7.3 million, or 1 in every 31 U.S. adults, according to a report released by the Pew Center on the States. The actual number of people behind bars rose to 2.3 million, nearly five times more than the world’s average.

The U.S. currently boasts the highest rate of incarceration of any country at any time in history, a full 25% of the world’s prison populationWe also have the greatest number of laws of any country at any time in history, laws created by nearly 90,000 separate governmental entities. This spaghetti mess of rules and regulation is so complicated that virtually any person can get tripped up by them. One simple mistake may very well result in incarceration, and it goes downhill from there.

Read the rest of this entry »

7.) Trends to Watch in 2010 – Colleges Face the Perfect Storm

Posted by admin on December 30th, 2009
Colleges Face the Perfect Storm
After looking at all the signals, there is no other way to describe it. Colleges are under attack.
Several legs of the financial stools upon which they are sitting have been kicked out from under them, forcing higher tuition rates on an already cautious base of consumers.
To the carnivores of the free enterprise system, the slow lumbering gate of colleges today makes them look like easy prey. But they bring with them tremendous inertia and the longstanding loyalties and traditions of generations past.
The true effects of this storm front have been masked hirer enrollments, as people without jobs opt to go back to school and hit the reset button on their next career.
Much like Henry Ford’s “control everything” approach to building cars at the River Rouge Plant where raw materials were brought into one end and finished cars rolled out the other end, colleges have maintained tight control over virtually every aspect of the academic food change.
Professors are carefully recruited, classroom times and schedules are thoroughly planned, courses are tightly prepared, degrees are framed around in-house talent, and academic accomplishments are meticulously positioned to help brand the experience.
Those days are numbered.
While there are many areas subject to change, the primary attack points will be the six areas where colleges are most vulnerable:
1. Money – As the cost of colleges skyrockets, student loans and financing are becoming harder to get. Here’s what’s going on.
Many states are hurting financially, and they are cutting their support for colleges. As an example, ten years ago the price of tuition at the University of Virginia, excluding room and board, was just over $4,000 for in-state students and nearly $17,000 for out-of-state students per year. Now it’s nearly $10,000 and $32,000, respectively.
Similarly, the State of California slashed their support for colleges by 20% causing the state board of regents to increase tuition by 32% in 2010.
Exacerbating the deficits are losses to college endowments, which declined significantly with the losing stocks in their portfolios.
At the same, student loans are getting hard to come by. Students can individually sign up for the government-backed Stafford loans, but they have limits of $5,500 a year. The other major type of federally backed student loan – the Parent PLUS – has no limit, but it requires the parents to co-sign, making them responsible for repayment. Making things even worse, the interest rates for these loans have nearly doubled in the past five years.
Most college students have relied heavily on credit cards to handle personal expenses while they were in college. However, congress passed a bill in May that will dramatically restrict the issuance of credit cards to anyone younger than 21. Consumer groups helped push the measure through because credit card companies have been praying relentlessly on naive college kids, charging hidden fees and exorbitant rates. According to Sallie Mae, 84 percent of college students have credit cards, carrying balances of more than $3,000.
Parents are also struggling to help out because they are losing access to home equity loans. The availability of money to homeowners through home-equity lines of credit has fallen by 25 percent in the U.S., to $538 billion, since the end of 2007, according to federal data.
In our fast-paced society, student thinking can change quickly, and the forest of red flags now being raised spells troubling times ahead.
With entrepreneurial minds cleverly attacking the flow of money currently being allocated to colleges, even seemingly minor changes will have profound effects as revenue streams change course and build momentum around alternative forms of education.
2. Courses – Our existing semester and quarter-based college schedules are a poor match for today’s plugged-in, hyper-jacked students. Passed down from generations past, the current timetables for courses spread out over 8-12 weeks only work for an increasingly small segment of society, leaving most working adults to fend for themselves.
With courses being so narrowly defined, colleges are leaving massive opportunities up for grabs, and the vultures are beginning to circle.
Courses are on the verge of being fragmented into smaller, faster learning units. The goal will be to make individual courses bite-sized morsels of learning that can be fit into virtually anyone’s schedule.
Similar to the way Wikipedia and iTunes have evolved future courseware authoring systems will be rooted in a templated process that allows topical experts to turn their expertise into quick learning modules. With the proper monetization system where money is parceled out to course authors as well as other critical elements in the delivery system, the resulting structure will become an organic explosion of easily digestible knowledge.
Courses will be available on-demand, anywhere, anytime, to satisfy virtually any need, desire, or interest. They will be easily affordable, universally available, and presented to the students in a fashion most comprehendible to their style of learning.
3. Teachers – As new economic realities hits college campuses, their first impulse will be to cut staff. Some will attempt to limit the damage to wage freezes and curtailed hiring, but others will begin to roll out the pink slips.
Research institutions will focus heavily on grants and corporate alliances to rebuild the revenue streams of the past.
As the prospects for a long-term future inside academia grow dim, corporations will take notice of the fertile talent base and begin offering “greener pastures” for professors and teachers.
Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter once described entrepreneurial innovation as a “perennial gale of creative destruction,” forcing existing companies to adapt or fail. “Economic progress in capitalist society,” he declared, “means turmoil.”
4. Classrooms – There has long been the pervasive notion that learning can take place only in a classroom. Even though schools use field trips and outdoor experiences to enhance education, the classroom remains a dominant central fixture in education today.
Classrooms are designed to focus attention, close off the rest of the world, and create a controllable environment where learning can take place. The person or education system that controls the classroom also controls the time when learning can take place, the students who will participate, the lighting, the sounds, the media used, the tools, the pace, the subject matter, and in many cases, the results.
However, classroom-centric education is not necessary for learning. Our need to physically “gather at the feet of the master” will be replaced with faster, easier systems for connecting thoughts and ideas. If the objective is simply to get credit for a course, the convenience of an anytime, anyplace delivery mechanism will be the most salable feature. For students who want to truly understand the material, a more apprentice-like approach will serve as the primary attractor.
In the future, the cost and overhead burden of maintaining classroom space will be closely scrutinized as financial pressures force colleges to get creative. Each change will feel like a grand experiment, but the advantage will swing towards the virtual classroom where classroom schedules and alarm clocks no longer matter.
5. Credits – What types of learning are credit-worthy?
In the future, this question will be at the heart of new course offerings as they work their way into the marketplace.
Learning takes place from the moment a person wakes up in the morning until they fall asleep at night. In fact, most of the time, learning continues even when a person is sleeping. Yet only a small subset of the learning that takes place has been dubbed “credit worthy.”
College credits are a rare form of currency assigned to the value to what a student learns. As credits accumulate, they are used to “buy” a diploma.
Credit granting authority has been relegated to accredited institutions and is protected with laws and systems that are closely guarded by people inside the system. There is no one central authority for determining credit-worthiness. Rather, each institution, once accredited, decides for itself.
Credit-granting authority will be the most difficult area for outsiders to penetrate. But rest assured, when the economic foundation of colleges begins to feel shaky, the creative opportunists will begin to emerge.
Things like co-branded courses, experience-based credits, and alignment with professional society certifications will begin to emerge to provide much-needed revenue streams for colleges. Each opportunity will be a challenging decision, but every change will dilute the sanctity of the credit system, creating precedent for others to follow.
6. Status – Academic elites have long been drinking the Kool-Aid, espousing the gospel of superior standing in one’s community that can only be achieved through diplomas and scholarly achievement. With record numbers of college graduates now unemployed and under-employed, the bragging rights have begun to tarnish.
Academic accomplishments do not always translate into “functional member of society,” and society has been inventing hundreds, if not thousands, of new “status” markers. Professional certifications, individual accomplishments, note-worthy projects, association memberships, achievement awards, and even being employed by a pedigree corporation will often carry far more weight than the status gained through a college degree.
So what kind of status will be used to open doors in the future? Look for marketing messages to appear as “more valuable than a degree at Harvard” or “a better entrepreneurial experience than attending Stanford or MIT.”
A college’s ability to sell its elite status will increasingly be met with resistance as we move into an era of austere frugality.  Our claims of accomplishment, self-worth, confidence, and respect are destined to shift along with the changing face of the institution.
Rest assured the coming war on colleges is not being waged by societal misfits or some rouge band of college haters. Instead, it will come from some of our most admired companies and people with every bit as good of intentions as people working inside colleges.

Colleges - Perfect Storm 985

After looking at all the signals, there is no other way to describe it. Colleges are under attack.

Several legs of the financial stools upon which they are sitting have been kicked out from under them, forcing higher tuition rates on an already cautious base of consumers. But money is only part of the equation. Cultural shifts, technological advances, and changes in customer perceived value are all working to create the perfect storm for colleges.

To the carnivores of the free enterprise system, the slow lumbering gate of colleges today makes them look like easy prey. But they bring with them tremendous inertia and the longstanding loyalties and traditions of generations past.

The true effects of this storm front have been masked by higher enrollments, as people without jobs opt to go back to school and hit the reset button for their next career. But that is about to change.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Future of Colleges & Universities – Part Two

Posted by admin on December 14th, 2009

Future of Colleges and Universities 545

The College Experience

NOTE: The following is the second in a four part series title: The Future of Colleges & Universities:  Blueprint for a Revolution

Colleges and Universities carry with them considerable inertia. They have long-standing traditions, huge alumni networks, solid brands in the minds of consumers, and are more durable than corporations with many having lasted centuries and still going strong. Most have integrated themselves into their respective communities with multiple funding tentacles, many with massive State-funded budgets, and others with intense fundraising operations that extend around the world.

People attend colleges for many reasons including a desire for a better job, a sense of personal accomplishment, to improve their resume, status and prestige, build relationships, and to have fun. However, all of these reasons boil down to one overarching motivation – a quest for a better life.

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The Future of Colleges & Universities – Part One

Posted by admin on December 13th, 2009
Future-of-Colleges-and-Universities-542

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The Future of Colleges & Universities: Blueprint for a Revolution

NOTE: The following is the first in a four part series title: The Future of Colleges & Universities:  Blueprint for a Revolution

A recent article in the Washington Post began with the statement that today’s college students “may be part of the last generation for which ‘going to college’ means packing up, getting a dorm room and listening to tenured professors.”  By using these three aspects of college life – packing up, dorm rooms, and tenured professors – the writer was able to clearly illustrate the ritualized process of traditional university education, setting the stage for major changes coming in the very near future.

In 2007 I released a paper on the future of education, culminating an 18 month effort to probe the likely evolution of a system that has become emotionally linked with many of our country’s and the world’s deficiencies.

I talked about what I saw as the coming iTunes form of education where courses from anywhere in the world could be easily created through a templated process, sent to a central distribution site, and easily distributed to students around the world. At no time had it occurred to me that iTunes (Apple) may be one of the key players in making it happen.

While the paper generated huge amounts of interest, the predictions of massive change happening within the following two years proved to be a few years too optimistic. That said, a revolution is coming.

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The Museum of the Future

Posted by admin on August 6th, 2009

Future of Museums 835
Establishing a new standard for cultural relevance

Just mention the word museum and a myriad of images come to mind. Folks line up for blocks for a King Tut exhibit. Visitors swarm extravagant nanotechnology and human anatomy displays. Static displays have been the bread and butter for years. That is changing.

Museums these days seem to cater more and more to the fun-science junkie in us. There is no lack of variety and many museums are hard at work at attracting crowds, sometimes employing lavish showmanship. Animatronics have been making the rounds in recent years.

Others are getting into the act, too. Melbourne-based Creature Technology Co. has turned dinosaurs and giant apes into a cash cow. Check out the Walking With Dinosaurs: The Arena Spectacular on the Wired web site. The 110 shows brought in a reported $110 million. On a different track, Ripley’s has assembled very individualized collections. The storefronts harbor distinct sets of unusual exhibits.

Government support has been ebbing in recent years. A 2007 Orinda Group report shows 20 percent of museum funding still comes from government sources. Museums, though, have been moving on other fronts to make up for lost cash.

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Empty Playgrounds: Global Populations in Decline

Posted by admin on July 28th, 2009

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Many countries are asking, “Where have all the children gone?”

In the next sixty seconds 245 babies will be born worldwide. India and China alone will add 36 and 29 respectively. When numbers such as these are reported by the news media they paint a very gloomy picture of the world to come. This portrayal is seriously misleading.

The population bomb is a misfire.

Notions that a massive wave of humanity will swamp the globe are simply wrong. At a recent speaking engagement, I talked about declining global population growth rates and announced the world may be on the threshold of catastrophic population decline. Of course, I was challenged. But, I’m sticking with my prediction. Fears of over population are now being replaced with fears of under population.

From a global perspective, we haven’t reach negative population growth just yet, but the numbers are painting an ominous picture.

A study conducted by the UN in 2002 predicted that 75 percent of the developed world will hit a below-replacement fertility rate by 2050. This means that Eastern Europe will lose a third to a half of its population by 2050, a number that has been steady declining since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Some variation can be dismissed as statistical anomaly. However, a U.S. Census report shows for the period of 1957 and 1960, the population growth rate dropped from 1.94 to 1.34. This too was a short term irregularity but demonstrates the potential for rapid shifts.

The U.S. Census report goes on to predict a gradual decline in population growth from 1.13 today to 0.60 by 2039.  Past variations make this steady decline prediction suspect and variations may be much more drastic. This could mean fewer and fewer replacements for us – much sooner than we thought.

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Declaring War on Human Death

Posted by admin on June 17th, 2009

Is death inevitable?

No person should ever die… EVER!

Is that our goal? Is that the direction we are headed in?
 
Futurist and author Ray Kurzweil is convinced an end to disease and possibly death by trauma may be here in a matter of decades. He’s taking vitamins like they are candy on a personal quest for the ultimate prize, immortality.

Kurzweil and others have been talking about the possibilities of vastly extended life spans for more than a few years now. The questions that come with these considerations are jarring. And, these questions deserve a thorough look to be sure, because radical, species-altering change is what is on the table. We should consider this prospect very carefully in the largest possible context.
 
We should ask the first question. Is the goal of the medical community to improve health, or to completely eradicate health problems? In Star Trek speak: What we are talking about is a prime directive.
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The Global Infrastructure Bank

Posted by admin on May 8th, 2009

Thinking beyond the limits of our current systems

Thinking beyond the limits of our current systems

Creativity is coming from unusual places these days. I snipped this from David Levinson’s blog post dated Feb 13, 2008, one of the earliest mentions of this topic (http://bit.ly/ma1Ur): …

“I’m proposing a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank that will invest $60 billion over ten years. This investment will multiply into almost half a trillion dollars of additional infrastructure spending and generate nearly two million new jobs … we’ll fund this bank by ending this war in Iraq. It’s time to stop spending billions of dollars a week trying to put Iraq back together and start spending the money on putting America back together instead.”

The National Infrastructure Bank is making a lot of noise inside the Beltway. Not difficult to imagine why. Here is another big-ticket item that is bound to keep lobbyists and politicians in hyperbole mode for months.

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Dr. Seuss, the Grandfather of Nanotechnology

Posted by admin on April 27th, 2009

Long before the physics of nanotechnology, a dreamer's dream was born
Long before the physics of nanotechnology, a dreamer’s dream sparked the world’s imagination

 

Known to most by his pen name, Dr. Seuss, Theodore Geisel lived a life in a magical world populated by unusual characters – characters who are not so refined that a dinner invitation he would decline, he once said with a wink, I think.

Like so many of us, I was raised with the bedtime stories of cats in hats and grinches that stole Christmas. Geisel’s imagination, it seems, had no bounds.

It should come as no surprise that on one dark evening, Geisel had an epiphany, which he put into words in a way that only the Seuss-master could produce. In 1954, he crafted Horton Hears a Who, a nothing-less-than brilliant glimpse into a world of the small. For those unfamiliar with nanotechnology, and many you are, reading about manipulating matter will take you very, very far.

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