It was a frenzy of activity as workers scurried from office to office, making their final checks, gathering books, papers, and personal belongings. Many were still stunned over the announcement that Google was closing its doors. The final minutes before the deadline were reserved for tearful hugs and remorseful goodbyes, but for the people of the world these brief moments of stunned silence would soon be replaced with long term anger and outrage.

A mere three weeks earlier this one-time tiny search engine company that overnight had grown into a goliath on Wall Street had appeared to be an invincible force on the global business stage. But now after wave upon wave of well-orchestrated attacks, the giant corporation had fallen to its knees, and in true medieval form, endured the equivalent of a public beheading of its data, its once stellar revenue streams, and its corporate integrity.

Teams of their best data-smiths and strategy people worked around the clock to plug the holes in their sinking ship, but were woefully unprepared for this kind of assault. After weeks of sleepless nights, witnessing one crippling blow after another, a grim new reality began to take hold. In the end, all data had become mangled to the point where it was irretrievable, and all backup systems suffering a similar fate.

TV cameras from around the world watched in horror as a single hand reached up and turned off the final power switch.

With the power turned off, an eerie silence filled the room.

The former giant of global business had breathed its last breath. This was the day that Google died.

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Leveraging animal intelligence. Crazy idea?

What if we could increase the intelligence of animals? Here is some behind the scenes footage of Futurist Thomas Frey expanding on some crazy notions about increasing animal intelligence. Hmmm, maybe not so crazy.

Many countries are asking, “Where have all the children gone?”

In the next sixty seconds 245 babies will be born worldwide. India and China alone will add 36 and 29 respectively. When numbers such as these are reported by the news media they paint a very gloomy picture of the world to come. This portrayal is seriously misleading.

The population bomb is a misfire.

Notions that a massive wave of humanity will swamp the globe are simply wrong. At a recent speaking engagement, I talked about declining global population growth rates and announced the world may be on the threshold of catastrophic population decline. Of course, I was challenged. But, I’m sticking with my prediction. Fears of over population are now being replaced with fears of under population.

From a global perspective, we haven’t reach negative population growth just yet, but the numbers are painting an ominous picture.

A study conducted by the UN in 2002 predicted that 75 percent of the developed world will hit a below-replacement fertility rate by 2050. This means that Eastern Europe will lose a third to a half of its population by 2050, a number that has been steady declining since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Some variation can be dismissed as statistical anomaly. However, a U.S. Census report shows for the period of 1957 and 1960, the population growth rate dropped from 1.94 to 1.34. This too was a short term irregularity but demonstrates the potential for rapid shifts.

The U.S. Census report goes on to predict a gradual decline in population growth from 1.13 today to 0.60 by 2039.  Past variations make this steady decline prediction suspect and variations may be much more drastic. This could mean fewer and fewer replacements for us – much sooner than we thought.

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Even a little ding can cause the dominoes to fall

Ever have one of those days?

Run a day late on a credit card payment, you’re dinged a $39 late fee.

Miss a traffic sign on our way across town – right in front of a cop – and get dinged another $150.

There are ways to compound your grief, too. Park under the red no parking sign for that lesson. Let’s not even go to a conversation about the IRS.

Is it me, or does it seem like we’re rowing with the slaves on a ship of some Egyptian taskmaster. We are constantly being whipped. Lash! Penalty for early withdrawal. Lash! Fine for driving while dialing a cellphone. Lash! Ding for this. Lash! Ding for that. Physical abuse may no longer seem to be part of the equation, but I clutched my heart the last time I received a letter from the IRS.

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Will the convergence of search technology and RFID chips improve our lives or forever put us in a fishbowl for all to see?

Findability Vs Spyability

Has this ever happened to you?
 
Over the years, my eyes have grown progressively myopic. I don’t mind my fuzzy view of things distant. My short range vision is still nearly perfect. Just need the specs for driving. Wouldn’t you know it? I step away from my computer and a moment later discover my glasses magically vanished. (For me, the glasses disappearing act, similar to losing socks in a dryer, is a recurring annoyance.)
 
Now, several days later, I’m still looking and my imagination has shifted into full gear, conjuring up thoughts of a sinister KGB plot to mess with my head.
 
I wish I were looking for something online. I could simply turn to a search engine, type in a few words, and on a good day find my subject.  But we have no search engines for the physical world.  Not yet.

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 Rethinking our current systems and
how to make them functional once again

The panic that we hear coming from Wall Street and the halls of Washington, DC is not the typical panic associated with a recession. Instead, it is the seldom heard sounds of national systems imploding, collapsing around us.

Conversation has turned to what was the unthinkable. The talk gathered momentum and now nervous whispers are heard all the way from the floor of New York Stock Exchange to the water cooler. Everyone is talking about what was unimaginable only a few short months ago. Tuesday, eyes turned to Washington. The nation breathlessly awaited word on how the U.S. will lead the world back from the brink of economic collapse.

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When policies and systems devastate innovation

Cars are being abandoned in record numbers at Dubai International Airport. The dust-covered Mercedes and BMW’s at the Dubai International Airport is a tell-tale reminder of what is happening there. The number of deserted cars crested the 3,000 mark in recent months, according to a Times Online article.

What is happening is the over-extended are making a mass exodus of possibly Biblical proportions. The cause has a lot to do with the draconian Sharia, a code of Islamic law that has gained reputation among smugglers of tiny amounts of illicit contraband. Under Sharia, the punishment for defaulting on a debt is severe. Bouncing a check is punishable with jail time and debtor prisons are indeed alive and well.

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Global shifts will cause a new social order to emerge

As I started pulling my notes together for 2009 trends, I instantly became overwhelmed by the sheer volume of changes currently in the works. The number of moving parts seems to exceed the number of stationary parts. All of our markets, systems, and technologies have become incredibly fluid, and much like a floating vessel, we are heading to parts unknown.

To a futurist, the chaotic nature of interconnecting trends and the extreme possibilities appear at times like a spinning compass needle. The disarray that we find ourselves in cries out for answers – some glimpse of the uncharted waters that lie beyond the horizon. So I’ll give it my best shot.

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The Precautionary Principal and the shifting onus of responsibility

The future will be neither as good as some would lead us to believe, or as bad as other would have us think. But it is the onus of responsibility that becomes the industry’s “hot potato”, with innovators squaring off against product safety experts and consumer advocates over who should bear the ultimate cost and responsibility of insuring compliance with the ever-increasing safety standards. 

With technology growing in complexity on a daily basis, it is no longer reasonable to live in a “buyer beware” society.  The Precautionary Principal, as a foundational underpinning of the sustainability movement, places the burden of protection on shoulders of those creating the products.

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The weirdness of future of wars will make us wish
we were dealing with knives and swords again

In 1976, President Gerald Ford issued an executive order forbidding the assassination of any foreign head of state. This order was issued when word leaked out that the CIA had made several attempts on Castro’s life as well as other “enemies” of the US.

This is a topic that I’ve often struggled with because today’s solution to global conflict is often measured in the destruction of the many as opposed to the destruction of the few. Not that I was in favor of assassinating Castro, but placing boundaries on the fighting of a war nearly always insures a larger, longer military engagement than simply removing a few problem people at the top.

The way I see it, the larger the death toll and the greater the path of destruction, the longer it will take to heal the deep-seated emotional wounds festering among the masses. While property damage can be repaired, and economies can be rebuilt, it is the emotional wounds that carry hatred and other significant problems from one generation to the next.

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