Reinventing Sales Tax

Posted by admin on August 25th, 2010

Store Owner 465

Sales tax is a a system that is now on the verge of collapse

Reinventing Sales Tax
As a general rule, extreme levels of complexity take a significant toll on society. The price we pay for complexity is far greater than the money involved. With upwards of 90,000 separate taxing districts in the U.S. sales tax has become an overly complicated system deeply entrenched in the fabric of society, but woefully out of touch with the times.
As people become increasingly mobile, both on the seller and buyer side of every transaction, location-based differentiators become decreasingly relevant.
But when it comes to sales tax, here’s what everyone get’s wrong. Sales tax is not a location tax, it is a transaction tax. The transaction triggers the tax. The location just determines the amount and who the recipients will be. Without a transaction, there is no tax.
The fact that every community wants to add their own extra piece to the sales tax puzzle, requiring special forms and special rules for compliance, is what has turned it into an impossibly complicated system.
Cities and communities across the country are now in dire straits. Their programs and services were framed around the income streams of more prosperous times. Bad systems, like sales tax, get remarkably worse during a bad economy. But they also create an opportunity
For this reason, I would like to propose a way out.
A little Background
Most cities in the U.S. are funded through some form of sales tax, a system designed during an entirely different era, a system that is now on the verge of collapse.
Sale tax is paid by the buyer and collected by the seller. But many different regulations have been developed around which transactions are taxable and which ones are not.
At the heart of current debates is a 1992 landmark ruling by the Supreme Court that determined retailers are not required to collect sales tax from shoppers unless they have a physical presence in the state where customers live. Initially, this ruling applied mainly to catalog companies and home-shopping channels on TV. But it also applied to the emerging online retail industry, giving them a distinct competitive advantage, and consumers a reason to change their buying habits.
Local retailers who have invested in their community, who send their kids to local schools and volunteer for local charities, quickly found themselves competing with faceless online companies, most of whom have never set foot in town. The problem with current sales tax laws are that they create a disadvantage to those who are local. But here is where it gets complicated.
If an online business has a physical presence in a state, such as a store, office or warehouse, they must collect sales tax from the customers who purchase items in that state. Without a physical presence, no sales tax needs to be collected. That sounds simple enough, until you get into the definition of what constitutes a physical presence.
Some states now claim that anyone doing affiliate sales, placing referral ads on their blog sites and receiving a commission, can be construed as being a local sales agent, and therefore the entire transaction is subject to sales tax. As a result, companies like Amazon and Overstock who count heavily upon the no-sales-tax advantage have cancelled affiliate relationships with anyone doing affiliate sales for them in those states.
Proposing a Solution
First, let’s start with the assumption that sales tax must be applied to all retail transactions – period, no exceptions. If we eliminate this one variable, then much of the complex decision-making process currently imposed on retailers is eliminated.
Second, with money becoming increasingly digital, the actual collection and distribution of sales tax will need to move up the food chain to the clearinghouse level. I will explain this idea further in the next section.
Rather than having millions of individual retailers bearing the responsibility for distributing the money, some new entity working in close proximity to our existing clearinghouses will handle the intricacies of making sure all funds are properly sent to the right districts.
Third, if we agree to split the amount of sales tax evenly between the location of the buyer and the location of the seller, there will no longer be any disagreement over collection and distribution of tax receipts.
The whole intent of this approach is to build a sales tax collection mechanism that is both seamless and nearly invisible to both retailers and customers alike.
In its present form, sales tax is far too messy for small-time retailers like those who set up shop at a flea market, craft show, or drive a mobile ice cream cart. Consequently, most of these tax dollars are lost.
It is also far too messy for mid-level participants like wholesalers, affiliate marketers, and subcontractors who shouldn’t even be in the mix.
The key to making this all work will be the use of split payment technology, and a new set of standards for the retail industry.
Split Payment Systems
In mid-2006 I published an online article on the concept of what I termed “fractal transactions.” This concept was later republished in the Jan 2007 issue of The Futurist Magazine.
Simply stated, a fractal transaction, now commonly referred to as a split payment system, is an automated point of money distribution. Money flows into the transaction, from one or more sources, and instantly leaves the transaction, automatically distributing money to one or more recipients. While this doesn’t sound like anything earthshaking, it indeed is.
Efforts in this area were underway long before my article, but the number of companies who have announced split payment systems since then has grown dramatically, including some big-name players like Amazon and PayPal.
If, for example, all retailers were required to have a split payment system built into their point of purchase transaction machines, and once a payment was made the sales tax was automatically sent to each of the tax recipients, while at the same time the purchase price was deposited into the account of the merchant, the overall complexity of the sale process would drop significantly.
As a result, new tax-collecting retailers will spring up all across the country and sales tax receipts would jump to a whole new level.
People rarely object to paying or collecting sales tax. But when the entire process places a mental burden of brain-draining time-sucking compliance, filling out of forms, along with the chance of getting audited, it’s no wonder why so few people want to subject themselves to it.
A well-designed split payment system could eliminate all that and more.
Portable Transaction Machines
Rental car companies, overnight delivery services, and door-to-door delivery services have been experimenting with portable payment devices for years.
But recently a new breed of transaction devices have come out of the woodwork. Some, like The Square, Macally’s new Swipe It Reader, and Japan’s Mophie are designed to turn the iPhone into a payment device. Others, like the Verifone Vx670 or the Cardsave 7780 are standalone portable credit card machines. Some even have built-in check readers.
Even though the technology can work with all forms of digital money, there are still only clunky systems for working with cash transactions. Cash machines are both a challenge and an opportunity.
Portable transaction machines are becoming very accessible to retailers. This kind of technology added to the front end will eliminate the need for countless bookkeeping hours on the back end, and the overall level of complexity will drop dramatically.
Here is where it gets interesting
If sales tax were collected and distributed at the clearing house level, payments could be made to tax recipients without any of the merchants having to fill out forms or compliance documents.
To establish the location for buyers and sellers, point of purchase transaction machines will come equipped with a geo-location chip to determine the point of sale, and the zip code of the buyer or shipping address will automatically determine the other side of the equation.
Let’s assume a box of nails was tagged with 10% sales tax, the tax money would be evenly split so 5% went to the location of the seller and 5% went to the location of the buyer. The 5% on the seller side of the equation would be split further with some money going to the state, some to the county, some to the city, and a small amount going to two different special taxing districts. Similarly, the 5% on the buyer side of the equation would also be split with some money going to the state, some to the county, some to the city, and a small amount going to a local transportation tax.
Once the system is functioning well within the U.S., since more and more transactions are happening across international boundaries, it would be interesting to allow foreign countries to join in the system.
This could easily become the beginning of the first global tax system.
Above the Line, Below the Line
Traditionally, merchants have been forced to absorb all of the transaction fees, a sizable piece of the purchase price. In many cities transaction fees end up being higher than sales tax. Since these fees are hidden deep within the bowels of the transaction, few people know the full extent of the damage. But just because they’re not obvious doesn’t mean you are not paying them.
If transaction fees were listed separately and added to the purchase price with a separate line charge, similar to the sales tax, people would quickly become aware of the steep charges being assessed.
As an example, our $10 box of nails would be assessed 10% sales tax and another 5.5% in transaction fees resulting in an $11.55 final purchase price.
If it’s okay to force gas stations to publicly display their gas prices, it should be okay to force credit card processing companies to publicly display their transaction fees.
The only reason this is being proposed is because the number of entities involved in credit card processing, authentication, currency conversion, and gateways has grown dramatically over the years. And the amount of these fees can range significantly, with some risky transactions taking over 10% of the purchase price just for processing the credit card.
Collapsing the Time-Float
Many companies have engineered lengthy late-payment cycles to allow them to squeeze out every possible extra penny from a transaction. One of the most notorious companies playing this game is Wal-Mart, delaying payment to vendors after a sale has been complete by as much as 90-180 days.
They rationalize the time float with product return cycles as buyers can return their purchase for a full refund several months after a purchase. But whatever the rationalization, the time-float between product sale and money flowing into vendor accounts can put the vendors at a serious disadvantage.
With digital money today flowing at the speed of light, efficient payment cycles between retailers, suppliers, vendors, and tax recipients will reduce the cost of doing business.
As a country, we are competing in a global marketplace. Our ability to streamline the efficiency of our systems will weigh heavily in the future on our standing among other countries who can work faster and cheaper than we can.
As a side benefit of reinventing sales tax, we may also have the ability to collapse many of the self-serving time floats throughout the financial world with split payment technologies.
When systems change, it’s important to leverage the situation by taking a macro view of support systems to maximize the scale of opportunity.
Some Final Thoughts
My intent here is to stimulate discussion, not to claim all of the answers.
The accounting and bookkeeping industry thrives in the face of complexity. Each new decision point added to the tax code has been very good for the accounting business, but generally bad for the rest of the economy.
Complexity places an insidious brain-power burden on people, and this translates into a significant toll on society. While it may be unrealistic to eliminate complexity by imposing simplicity, we can at least automate it.
Our future is being shaped by our systems. We now have a golden opportunity to do something amazing, and it all begins with reinventing sales tax.

As a general rule, extreme levels of complexity take a significant toll on society. The price we pay for complexity is far greater than the money involved. With upwards of 90,000 separate taxing districts in the U.S. sales tax has become an overly complicated system deeply entrenched in the fabric of society, but woefully out of touch with the times.

As people become increasingly mobile, both on the seller and buyer side of every transaction, location-based differentiators become decreasingly relevant.

But when it comes to sales tax, here’s what everyone get’s wrong. Sales tax is not a location tax, it is a transaction tax. The transaction triggers the tax. The location just determines the amount and who the recipients will be. Without a transaction, there is no tax.

The fact that every community wants to add their own extra piece to the sales tax puzzle, requiring special forms and special rules for compliance, is what has turned it into an impossibly complicated system.

Cities and communities across the country are now in dire straits. Their programs and services were framed around the income streams of more prosperous times. Bad systems, like sales tax, get remarkably worse during a bad economy. But they also create an opportunity.

For this reason, I would like to propose a way out.

Read the rest of this entry »

Privatizing Libraries

Posted by admin on August 19th, 2010

Private Library 713

Expanding our thinking about the notion of
corporate-run community libraries

Consider the following scenario. Two years from now in November, you find yourself walking into a voting booth to decide on the fate of your local library. The issue you will be deciding affects you directly because it has to do with the management of your local library. You will be voting on one of four choices for the operational management of your library. The choices you have to pick from include Microsoft, Google, Apple, or your current city-run operation.

Rest assured, this is not some takeover bid by one of these three companies to steal libraries away from their local constituency. Rather, it is a very considered offer to both manage and invest in your local library, while at the same time, extending the influence of their companies.

Let’s face it; the recent economic times have not been kind to community libraries. Many have had to cut staff and cut services in order to keep their doors open. Several libraries systems have had to close branches, while other standalone libraries have had little choice but to close their doors.

While many in the library community may see this as cause for alarm, I would like to open a conversation on how a situation like this can be turned into an opportunity.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Alternative Transportation District

Posted by admin on August 11th, 2010

YouTube Preview Image

Short video clip about the opportunities associated
with creating an alternative transportation district.
Recorded at the Plan Fort Collins event on March 3, 2010

Over the past few years I have been carefully watching what has turned into an explosion of alternative transportation vehicles being developed all over the world. These vehicles include everything from electric and fuel cell scooters, to hybrid motorcycles, to electric skateboards, to turbo-wheelchairs, to dog-powered bikes, to Segways and Segway knockoffs.
Nearly every one of these vehicles is different. They differ in size and shape, height and weight, fuel source, speed, and maneuverability.
Perhaps the only thing they have in common is that there are virtually no roads to drive them on, and that’s where we find a tremendous opportunity.
If we do not encourage the use of alternative transportation, we are by default encouraging more car usage. This single-minded approach is limiting not only our mobility, but also our ability to innovate.
Innovation comes in many shapes and forms, but in the area of transportation, it has to come in the shape or form of a vehicle that is compatible with our current highway and street systems.
Because of the thousands of alternative transportation vehicles coming out of the woodwork, most cities have chosen to ban them from the streets.
To be clear, most haven’t bothered to legislate a ban on the vehicles. Instead, responsibility for dealing with them is handed off to the police departments and for them, the easiest solution is simply to not allow them on the streets. And they are also not allowed on the bike paths, sidewalks, or any other existing trails.
Trail Systems
In my home state of Colorado, people take great pride in the elaborate networks of trails that have been created in many of the cities and small towns.
The trails, however, are the exclusive domain of pedestrians and bicyclists, even though the two often have their own set of compatibility issues.
Some communities have invested heavily in the creation of these trails, but few, if any, have invested in the signage, maps, and traffic management systems necessary to turn them into functional transportation routes. Very few first-timers have a clue where they will end up on these trails.
Trail systems still tend to play the role of the ugly step child when compared to roads and highways. Hardly any have lane dividers. Many are not plowed when it snows. Few have names or signage to give any indication where you are in relationship to the rest of the community. If an accident occurs, emergency vehicles are forced to hunt down the location.
Additionally, few trail systems come with any form of support services. In most cases, restrooms are few and far between. It’s hard to find water, food, or shelter in case of rain or hail.
As a result, our current trail systems have become the domain of those who are looking for recreation and exercise, not for people looking to go from point A to point B.
No Current Classification System
When it comes to alternative transportation vehicles, there are very few rules… well, other than you can’t drive them anywhere.
What I mean is that there are no classification systems regarding such things as size, weight, noise, and speed.
If, for example, there was a classification system for electric scooters (We’ll call it the ES-12 Classification) where all vehicles were “silent” electric powered scooters, weighing under 500 pounds, under 4’ in width, with 3 wheels or less, traveling at speeds not to exceed 20 mph, the vehicles become a known commodity and cities could decide whether to allow ES-12 scooters on the streets or trails.
Similarly, if there was a classification system for hybrid off-road wheelchairs (We’ll call it the HW-14 Classification) where all of the wheelchairs are one-passenger vehicles, wheels that are between 12-20” in diameter, less than 3’ wide, traveling at speeds of under 12 mph, a different set of decisions could be used to determine the proper usage of HW-14 wheelchairs.
Once the classification systems are in place, and cities start paying attention to them, the alternative transportation industry will begin designing vehicles to match the various user groups that develop around each category.
The Opportunity
The real opportunity lies in the ability of some bold community to step forward and develop the first alternative transportation district. This district will become the trailblazing authority upon which this growing new industry will turn for answers.
As a first step, the city needs to convene a meeting that involves representatives from many of the major players in the transportation industry – Honda, Audi, Daimler, Ford, GM, Suzuki, Yamaha, and many more. The intent of this meeting will be to set the stage for defining the presently undefined alternative transportation industry: vehicle classifications, industry standards, usage requirements, safety issues, and more.
In tandem with hosting the meeting, the host city will need to take an active role in forming a leadership team complete with industry and community experts to serve both as the ongoing decision-making body and the driving force of action and initiatives.
The community will need to understand both the risks and opportunities associated with this type of venture. Not everyone will be in favor of it, and serious opposition may develop along the way.
At the same time, this is an industry looking for a home. Along with becoming the first alternative transportation-friendly city will come an economic development play that can be used to entice many early stage players to pull up stakes and move into town. Many others will establish regional offices as a way to stay in touch with each new development.
The city will be committing to the development of a trail/road system that operates outside of the bounds of current highways, railroads, trails and bike paths. Since many cities already have pieces of this infrastructure already in place, the commitment will be to improve and redevelop it into a workable phase-one alternative transportation system.
To be sure, this will not be an easy undertaking, but nothing worthwhile ever is.
The future of transportation will not be defined by bigger, faster, sportier-looking cars. Rather, it will be defined by matching every individual’s unique mobility needs with the most appropriate vehicle for satisfying those needs.

Over the past few years I have been carefully watching what has turned into an explosion of alternative transportation vehicles being developed all over the world. These vehicles include everything from electric and fuel cell scooters, to hybrid motorcycles, to electric skateboards, to turbo-wheelchairs, to dog-powered bikes, to Segways and Segway knockoffs.

Nearly every one of these vehicles is different. They differ in size and shape, height and weight, fuel source, speed, and maneuverability.

Perhaps the only thing they have in common is that there are virtually no roads to drive them on, and that’s where we find a tremendous opportunity.

If we do not encourage the use of alternative transportation, we are by default encouraging more car usage. This single-minded approach is limiting not only our mobility, but also our ability to innovate.

Read the rest of this entry »

Where is My Flying Car?

Posted by admin on August 3rd, 2010
Where in My Flying Car?
Flying cars will have to wait until we go
through the era of flying delivery drones
Imagine yourself in 2030, 20 years in the future, sitting in your living room watching your favorite show on a 3D holographic display, and you witness a product placement scene where someone is eating one of the best pizzas you’ve ever seen. The depiction is so lifelike and intense that you instantly start craving pizza, and simply utter the word “yes.”
Thirty seconds later, a flying delivery drone docks with your house and delivers the exact pizza you were craving along with a six-pack of your favorite beer. It automatically knew what you wanted, and it knew about the beer as well as the pizza.
As this plays out, you will have eaten half of the pizza before you realize what you paid for it.
Marketing people have worked for decades to shrink the time-gap between the marketing moment and the buying moment. In this scenario, I’ve also added a nearly instantaneous fulfillment moment.
With this simple illustration we can begin to see the immense potential of flying delivery drones and the radical changes they will impose on everyday living. At the same time, they become the critical next step for us to advance towards one of our most sacred unfulfilled dreams, the age of the flying car.
Flying Cars Defined
So what exactly is a flying car?
Most of us are still stuck on visions of George Jetson’s car, remnants of Hanna-Barbera’s hugely influential cartoon series launched in 1962. Our first generation of mass-produced flying cars, however, will look far different than what George was driving.
Over the years we have seen many versions of flying cars starting with the Curtiss Autoplane in 1917. Decade after decade, designs have evolved along with the conceptual underpinnings of what constitutes a flying car.
In 2009 when Terrafugia launched the maiden voyage of its own flying car known as The Transition, the universal reaction people voiced was, “Interesting, but it’s not really a flying car.”
NASA has begun referring to them as PAVS (Personal Air Vehicles) and has attempted to differentiate flying cars from other flying vehicles and has concluded that for any of these vehicles to become commercially successful, they need to meet the following criteria.
Seats 2 to 6 passengers.
150-200 mph (322 km/h) cruising speed.
Quiet.
Safe.
Comfortable.
Reliable.
Able to be flown by anyone with a driver’s license.
As affordable as travel by car or airliner.
Near all-weather capability enabled by Synthetic Vision Systems (NASA’s term for a technology with better-than-human visualization of the terrain and airspace).
Highly fuel efficient (able to use alternative fuels).
800 mile (1300 km) range.
Provide “door-to-door” travel capabilities, via vehicle roadability, or small residential airfields or vertiports with only a short walk from the aircraft to the final destination.
Essentially, flying cars need to be as comfortable as cars today, extremely safe, and fly from Point A to Point B on its own, with no human interference.
Expanding on NASA’s list, five key technological breakthroughs will be needed for the first generation of flying cars to become viable:
1. Fully automated navigation systems – The average person has a difficult time navigating on a two dimensional surface. The flying car industry will not be able to “get off the ground” without an onboard navigator that “handles the driving”. Yes, people will want the freedom of being able to do some creative maneuvering in certain situations, but that will only be allowed in rare instances.
2. Low-impact vertical take-off – When used by average person, flying cars cannot have a runway requirement. They need to take off and land vertically without blowing the leaves off of trees or shutters off windows.
3. Convenient fly-drive capability – As humanity makes the transition from ground-based autos to flying cars there will be a need for both driving on the ground and flying in the air.
4. Silent engines – Because there are no significant acoustical barriers in the air, the engines on flying cars will need to be virtually silent. Very few cities will want to put up with the noise of thousands of flying vehicles if they all sound like airplanes today.
5. Specialized safety systems – To date both aircraft and airspace have been closely controlled by organizations like the FAA and the NTSB to insure the safety of the flying public. Because of the sheer volume of vehicles being navigated by average drivers (read untrained pilots), additional safety measures will need to be in place. Required safety featured will include such things as collision avoidance systems and drop-out-of-the-sky emergency airbags on the outside of the vehicles.
Additionally, with the potential for thousands of vehicles clutter the airspace, one additional requirement will be that they become virtually invisible from the ground.
The Norman Matrix – Directional layering of airspace
In addition to the technology built into the vehicles, we will also need to develop a workable air traffic control system for exponentially larger traffic volumes.
With several hundred thousand vehicles flying over a city, there will need to be an organized system for managing the traffic, and having all vehicles at a particular altitude traveling the same direction would eliminate many problems. This is an automated navigation system I’ve labeled the Norman Matrix.
In the Norman Matrix, all vehicles traveling at 1,000 ft altitude will be traveling due north, at 1,010 ft altitude 1 degree east of due north, 1,020 ft altitude 2 degrees east of due north, etc. Vehicles will spiral up to make a right turn, or spiral down to make a left turn.
With a fully automated navigation system, this type of maneuvering should be invisible to the operator.
While not a perfect solution (the North Pole becomes a crash point for those flying due north), it does represent a good starting point for engineering a more comprehensive air traffic solution.
Flying Delivery Drones
As we look over the list of technologies needed, it becomes clear that virtually every aspect of the flying car era will also be needed for us to usher in a workable system for flying delivery drones. But it can be done without the dangers of flying people.
For us to reach a point where large numbers of average people can conveniently fly across town for work, school, and shopping, we will need to spend a few years practicing with non-passenger drones. Once the drones have been perfected, we can easily transition to the flying car era.
Logically, any full-scale drone delivery service should be pioneered by companies like FedEx or UPS. But as with most large companies they tend to be less risk-taking than some of the private and small business innovators. Small companies will develop the prototypes which the large companies will later use.
The U.S. Military has been proving the viability of unmanned drones, with over 5,500 already being used in combat. However, most military drones, such as the Predator and Reaper, are designed to operate more like a plane with runways for takeoff and landing.
Deliver drones, like flying cars, need precise vertical takeoff and landing capabilities. For this reason, some of the innovative companies in the rapidly growing quadricopter field may be better positioned to move into this category. Quadricopters today are primarily used for surveillance and aerial monitoring.
Changing the World in the Process
When the Internet began to scale in the early 1990’s, it did far more than transform communications. The viral nature of the World Wide Web began creating borderless economies, causing individual countries to lose control of commerce.
In addition, to borderless commerce, it created confusion about issues related to power and control, even the sovereignty of nations.
Once the volume of flying cars reaches a significant number, somewhere in the range of 500,000 to 1 million, countries will begin to lose control of their citizens.
Borders will become meaningless to people with flying cars. Yes, it will be possible for countries to develop electronic borders, but that will only create a black market for cloaking devices and invisibility shields.
Flying cars will do far more than transform transportation; they will transform government, taxation, conflict, commerce, culture, patriotism, and much more. As with any new technologies, not all of the changes will be good.
In the early days of the Internet, we could only begin to imagine the opportunities that would eventually accompany this kind of innovation. It will be the same with flying cars.
For me, the best way to phase it is: “Flying cars will unleash our bodies in much the same way the Internet has unleashed our minds.”
By Thomas Frey

Before flying cars... 124

First things first. Before we can have flying cars,
we will need to go through the era of flying delivery drones

Imagine yourself in 2030, 20 years in the future, sitting in your living room watching your favorite show on a 3D holographic display, and you witness a product placement scene where someone is eating one of the best pizzas you’ve ever seen. The depiction is so lifelike and intense that you instantly start craving pizza, and simply utter the word “yes.”

Thirty seconds later, a flying delivery drone docks with your house and delivers the exact pizza you were craving along with a six-pack of your favorite beer. It automatically knew what you wanted, and it knew about the beer as well as the pizza.

As this plays out, you will have eaten half of the pizza before you realize what you paid for it.

Marketing people have worked for decades to shrink the time-gap between the marketing moment and the buying moment. In this scenario, I’ve also added a nearly instantaneous fulfillment moment.

With this simple illustration we can begin to see the immense potential of flying delivery drones and the radical changes they will impose on everyday living. At the same time, they become the critical next step for us to advance towards one of our most sacred unfulfilled dreams, the age of the flying car.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Future of Libraries: Interview with Thomas Frey

Posted by admin on July 20th, 2010

Future Library 984

Libraries in the future will come in many different forms

NOTE: The following is a reprint of an interview that recently appeared in American Libraries Magazine

Without consulting a crystal ball, Thomas Frey, executive director and senior futurist at the DaVinci Institute, writes and speaks about a promising future for those libraries strongly connected to their communities and quickly adaptable to the changing world around them. Tom Sloan, executive director of the DuPage Library System in Geneva, Illinois, asked Frey to discuss the future of libraries.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Coming of the Terabyters

Posted by admin on July 5th, 2010
The Coming of the Terabyters
A new breed of worker, equipped with uber-geek
data-capturing tools, are about to usher in a whole new information era
Recently I was preparing for a talk on the future of money, a talk I have given many times in the past, and I became absorbed with one singular thought – the relationship between information and money.
The value of a person, as an example, has traditionally been calculated based on hard number such as money in their bank account, personal assets, 401Ks, earning power, etc. As our ability to capture and process information improves, we are able to assign many more numbers to the intrinsic value of an individual.
Today we find ourselves in an awkward in-between state of trying to transition from a world based on hard currencies to one where things like talent, relationships, knowledge, reputation, personal networks, influence, and accomplishments all have growing significance. These attributes have always held value, but only recently have they been considered valuable enough to serve as a tradable commodity.
In the coming years we will see an explosion of systems designed around the quantification of human attributes and personal influence serving as the basis of new currencies. And these currency movements will be driven farther and faster with introduction of The Terabyters.
What is a Terabyter?
In 2008, Americans consumed 1.3 trillion hours worth of information, which translates into 12 hours of information per person per day. If 12 hours a day seems a bit much, consider the sources of TV, radio, games, social networking, surfing the Internet that continue to play an ever greater role in our lives. From a literary standpoint, Americans consume 100,500 words per day from these same sources. That amounts to 34 gigabytes each day or a total of 3.6 zettabytes total for 2008.
As impressive as these numbers sound, they are tiny compared to the walking information nodes we will see in the near future. These are people I have begun to call the Terabyters.
A terabyter is a person who produces more than a terabyte of new information every day. Today, only a handful of these people in existence, but the numbers will soon swell along with the development of new data capture equipment.
Consider the following scenario…
Each morning Winston rolls out of bed, takes a quick shower, and begins to strap on the trademark Gargoyle gear. Named after the characters described in Neil Stevenson’s Snow Crash, a Gargoyle is a person who equips themselves with a wearable computer of sorts, and is constantly collecting visual and sensory data about his/her surroundings, while continually being jacked into the Metaverse (Internet).
For Winston, his role in life is to serve as a human information node in the rapidly growing world of extreme data immersion, and his income is both directly and indirectly dependent upon the amount of information he is able to amass on a daily basis.
The information Winston collects is being continually streamed to the server farms for search engines designed for the physical world. Each video stream coming from Winston is layered with object recognition software, geospatial coordinates, and other sensory response data to the physical world around him into digital information that is searchable.
He represents a human version of the spidering bots that tech companies currently use to scan the digital web. But spidering the physical world requires a more human approach, and that’s where Winston comes in.
Search technology companies such as Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft have agreed to buy the incoming data streams from Winston, and thousands more people like him, based on a percentage of ad sales associated with the display of his information.
Two years earlier, Cisco began a campaign to promote the lifestyle of the Terabyter as a way to force the other industry players like AT&T and Verizon to step up their game. Within a few short weeks, seemingly everyone on the planet knew what the hottest new ultra-cool profession would be.
As a full-fledged Terabyter, people can do whatever they want to, anytime, anyplace, and still make money.
For a mere $5,000 worth of equipment, and a commitment to wear the gear relentlessly, virtually anyone can become a Terabyter, and the money will start rolling in.
Admittedly it isn’t a lifestyle that will appealed to everyone. The equipment is a hassle and the income is rather sparse to begin with. But those who stick with it will see their income grow and, over time, the equipment will become far less intrusive.
However, for the people who start early and stick with it, this is the ultimate lifestyle. Every day is an adventure, finding new places to explore, new people to meet, and never bound to a desk or a computer. Their livelihood is directly related to how active their lifestyle is.
Creating the Terabyter Network
To be sure, there will be many players involved in developing a system to ramp up data collection to this level. All of the Internet service providers will have to gear up, new bandwidth needs to be allocated, routers and switching systems have to be changed out, browsers and operating systems will need to be updated, and search engine thinking will have to be revised.
Invariably, this whole shift will begin with a ragtag operation of sub-terabyters seeding the data universe. The initial capabilities will be quite limited with regional test-beds set up to demonstrate the potential inside a single city. But once a major player like Cisco begins to smell an opportunity, everything changes quickly.
Terabyer gear is already available, but still in crude, marginally-usable formats. Video capture goggles, helmets, and other devices will quickly morph into sleek, barely-visible equipment that can be mounted in, on, and around the wearers.
Once the world gets a glimpse of the potential, along with the right incentives, Terabyter gear will begin to fly off the shelves, system registrations will skyrocket, and a whole new income-producing lifestyle will spring to life.
In addition to the ongoing video stream of a Terabyter’s surroundings, the video images will be overlaid with biosensor response data, assigning emotional values to individual objects, places, and people.
Each month new sensors and data-collection gear will show up in the marketplace and Terabyters will have to decide which elements to replace on their apparatus. .
Some of the initial dissention will stem from whether or not it’s necessary to use humans. Terabyter equipment can easily be strapped onto cars and bicycles, but the most valuable data will come from the places that only humans could go.
To be sure, privacy and security issues will rise to the surface, but these will not be insurmountable matters.
Bridging the Relationship
After viewing the world through the lens of a Terabyter, I’d like to focus your attention again on the emerging relationship brewing between information and money.
Money based on rare commodities will hold its value until the commodity is no longer rare. Similarly, money based on confidence and trust will hold its value until faith in the system begins to dissipate.
For this reason, all money is fiat money, based on trust.
Money today is nothing more than information – digital nuggets that have been assigned value buried deep inside our information reserves. Mining for information is similar to mining for gold or any other precious metals. You have to know what you’re looking for.
Currency has been the traditional system for transferring value in the past. In the future, our ability to manage and control information will enable many new systems for transferring value.
If you’re still struggling with the concepts here, Dan Robles, founder of the Ingenesist Project offers this set of predictions for 2020 based on “an entirely new form of capitalism whose velocity and voracity will take the world completely by surprise.”
Hold on to your hats, the transition is right around the corner. And the change agents who will help usher in this new system will be none other than the Terabyters.
By Futurist Thomas Frey

Terabyter 2

A new breed of worker, equipped with uber-geek data-capturing tools,
are about to usher in a whole new information era

Recently I was preparing for a talk on the future of money, a talk I have given many times in the past, and I became absorbed with one singular thought – the relationship between information and money.

The value of a person, as an example, has traditionally been calculated based on hard number such as money in their bank account, personal assets, 401Ks, earning power, etc. As our ability to capture and process information improves, we are able to assign many more numbers to the intrinsic value of an individual.

Today we find ourselves in an awkward in-between state of trying to transition from a world based on hard currencies to one where things like talent, relationships, knowledge, reputation, personal networks, influence, and accomplishments all have growing significance. These attributes have always held value, but only recently have they been considered valuable enough to serve as a tradable commodity.

In the coming years we will see an explosion of systems designed around the quantification of human attributes and personal influence serving as the basis of new currencies. And these currency movements will be driven farther and faster with introduction of The Terabyters.

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Maximum Freud

Posted by admin on May 19th, 2010

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A few thoughts on “Maximum Freud”

In 1972, I was young engineering student at South Dakota State University in Brookings, SD. One of the first courses I was required to take was a short-course on slide rules. For those of you who don’t know what a slide rule is – first came the abacus, then came the slide rule, and then came the calculator.

This was a time when the real “cool geeks” on campus walked around proudly displaying their black carrying case for their slide rule that was attached to their belt. Brainiacs on parade, a way of telling the world how smart they were.

Early calculators were first showing their face around 1970, but in 1972 they were still pretty expensive. I remember arguing with my teacher about whether or not the slide rule course was necessary and his response was that “all engineers need to know how to run the slide rule.” Tough to argue with that logic.

But of course his thinking was wrong. Even though I took the course and passed it with flying colors, I’ve never used a slide rule in doing engineering work. Engineers at Hewlett Packard and Texas Instruments who were working on next generation calculators at the time would have laughed at my teacher’s assertion that slide rules were always going to be the centerpiece of the engineer’s tool chest.

Clearly this period of time was the end of an era. It was the end of the slide rule era and the beginning of the calculator era.

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Systems Thinking and the Future of Education

Posted by admin on April 27th, 2010

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Short video clip on “Systems Thinking”
recorded at the Plan Fort Collins event on March 3, 2010

A recent article in iLibrarian explained it this way.

Online education seems set on its course to overtake traditional colleges within the next few decades, especially as our society becomes ever more dependent on the internet to get our work done.  Thomas Frey, an expert on online education, compares our growing reliance on the education system to the reliance of ancient Romans on their numeric system.  He indicates that much like the Romans, we have become increasingly reliant on our education system which is meant to pass on information from one generation to the next, hesitant to any change that may occur (explaining the rough transition to online education).

Ghost Towns of the Internet

Posted by admin on March 27th, 2010
Ghost Towns of the Internet
When today’s data goldmines becomes tomorrow’s data carcasses
In 1859 the tiny community of Tin Cup, Colorado got its first taste of gold fever. A tiny amount of gold was all it took for prospectors to start poking around with hopes of striking it rich. Twenty years later they landed their first major strike and rumors of the find spread across the country.
By 1900, the once insignificant mountain settlement had mushroomed into a bustling gold town with over 2,000 people. But in a short time the mines were exhausted, the people left, and the post office closed its doors in 1918. Today, the only remnants of this once thriving community are a few abandon buildings and a couple signs along the road.
Ghost towns are a rich part of world history. There are literally thousands of examples of these now-irrelevant pin pricks on a map. Overnight sensations quickly became a distant memory in the years that followed.
Is the Internet today really that much different than the gold rush stories of the late 1800s?
For ghost towns, the reasons behind their demise vary tremendously. Pripyat, a small town in northern Ukraine, reached a population of 50,000 before the Chernobyl Nuclear Power disaster. Today, it is glowing with abandonment.
Jonestown, Guyana was founded as both a “socialist paradise” and a “sanctuary” from media scrutiny by cult leader Rev Jim Jones. After reaching a population of nearly 1,000 people, the entire population participated in a mass suicide, causing it to become little more than an entry in the why-in-the-hell-did-they-listen-to-him history books.
These, of course, are unusual examples. But the world is filled with unusual examples. A disaster is still a disaster no matter how unusual the circumstances may be.
Will the digital ruins of today’s Internet ever compare to the physical ruins of Ancient Greece or Ancient Rome? Will anyone even know they existed?
Ghost Brands
In 1962, Woolco began a 20 year rollercoaster ride through retail history. At its peak the Woolco name was a powerful force in the marketplace, with hundreds of big box stores in the U.S., Canada, and Great Britain employing tens of thousands of people. Today the name hardly merits a mention in history books.
In the 1970s, IBM’s Selectric Typewriter had established itself as a critical cornerstone of office activity. But when computers arrived in the 1980, typewriters began to disappear and now the Selectric brand is little more than a museum piece.
In 1999 some of the top Internet properties were Lycos, Xoom, Excite, AltaVista, and GeoCities. Each of them were attracting millions of web visitors each month, competing head to head with companies like Microsoft, Yahoo, and Amazon. Today each exists in name only, resting quietly in the shadow of its former existence.
Organic Content Creation
As we entered the 2000s, many companies began to focus on organic content creation with customer doing most of the heavy lifting when it comes to the time and labor used to build a primo web property.
As a result of this trend, data has been accumulating so fast that companies are investing heavily in server capacity to accommodate customer demand. While the exact numbers are being closely guarded, here are some notable data points to consider:
Google is rumored to manage over one million servers in its various data centers around the globe. Google’s data capacity for its search, YouTube, G-Mail, and other data-heavy services is said to be over twice the size of its competitors – Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Yahoo, and IBM.
Microsoft’s newest data center in Chicago has been architected around installing entire containers filled with servers. Each container holds over 2,000 servers and can be installed in less than eight hours.
Amazon currently runs the world’s largest online store and one of the world’s largest cloud computing operations.
IBM currently operates eight million square feet of data center space on six continents.
EDS is now managing over 380,000 servers in 180 data centers.
Facebook’s data centers store more than 40 billion photos, and users upload 40 million new photos each day – about 2,000 photos every second.
The Tokyo Data Center serves as Japan’s Internet backbone. Japan claims it to be the largest data center in the world
IDC is predicting that the cost of powering data centers around the world will reach $40 billion annually by 2012. How long before that number doubles, triples, or quadruples?
The difference today between the ghost towns of the Wild West and the brand names of the 70s is the speed with which changes are happening.
Organic growth often leads to organic abandonment. Is the speed with which they arrive a predictor of the speed with which they will leave?
Future Ruins Viewed as a Digital Past
As we look at the next generation of the Internet, watching carefully as it unfolds, we cannot help but be struck by how quickly it has infiltrated our lives and how much of our attention it currently commands.
Much like the physical structures in our cities that form along the horizons of our urban landscapes, the data structures inside today’s data giants represent some of mankind’s most remarkable feats. True, they exist only as a digital compliment to the bricks and steel of physical buildings, but they hold within them vital clues about who we are, what we find valuable, and our drives and passions for forging ahead.
So what will happen to the likes of these ground-losing giants?
Second Life – Less than 3 years ago this one time buzz-dominator of the virtual world’s industry was the darling of media discussions, but has now been relegated to competing for mindshare with lesser contenders like video games and social media.
MySpace – People have rapidly shifted from the chaotic page-building systems on MySpace to the cleaner look and interface on Facebook. How long before some new contender arrives and begin to steal market share from both?
Plaxo – Starting off as a constantly updating business card service, Plaxo has lost ground to other mindshare grabbers like LinkedIn and Twitter.
Monster.COM – Monster suffered a 33% decline in revenues in 2009 compared to 2008 as the bad economy and lack of jobs drove many would be customers to CraigsList and other contenders.
Friendster – An early pioneer in social media, Friendster has lost its footing and remains a distant memory among the historians for social media.
PhotoBucket – Riding on the coattails of MySpace, this one-time darling of the photo hosting world has lost ground to companies like Flickr and Picassa.
Certainly each of the companies has the potential to breathe new life into their business and add buoyancy to their sinking ship. But even the best business managers can only hold things together for a while.
Life expectancy for modern day businesses, even the remarkable ones, is measured in decades, not centuries.
Are today’s success stories nothing more than a prelude to tomorrow’s disaster stories?
The digital world as it exists today contains the keys to humanity, the raw essence of personhood, and in the long run, the future of our children’s children.
More important than the decaying wood and weed infested streets of physical ghost towns, what will happen to the data reserves and important scraps of our civilization that can be instantly erased with the flip of a switch rather than the erosion of time?
These are all hard questions without good answers. But rest assured, the ghost town era of the Internet is coming, and for some, it has already arrived.

Ghost Towns 676

When today’s data goldmines becomes tomorrow’s data carcasses

In 1859 the tiny community of Tin Cup, Colorado got its first taste of gold fever. A tiny amount of gold was all it took for prospectors to start poking around with hopes of striking it rich. Twenty years later they landed their first major strike and rumors of the find spread across the country.

By 1900, the once insignificant mountain settlement had mushroomed into a bustling gold town with over 2,000 people. But in a short time the mines were exhausted, the people left, and the post office closed its doors in 1918. Today, the only remnants of this once thriving community are a few abandon buildings and a couple signs along the road.

Ghost towns are a rich part of world history. There are literally thousands of examples of these now-irrelevant pin pricks on a map. Overnight sensations quickly became a distant memory in the years that followed.

Is the Internet today really that much different than the gold rush stories of the late 1800s?

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The Day that Google Died

Posted by admin on February 22nd, 2010

The Day that Google Died 831

It was a frenzy of activity as workers scurried from office to office, making their final checks, gathering books, papers, and personal belongings. Many were still stunned over the announcement that Google was closing its doors. The final minutes before the deadline were reserved for tearful hugs and remorseful goodbyes, but for the people of the world these brief moments of stunned silence would soon be replaced with long term anger and outrage.

A mere three weeks earlier this one-time tiny search engine company that overnight had grown into a goliath on Wall Street had appeared to be an invincible force on the global business stage. But now after wave upon wave of well-orchestrated attacks, the giant corporation had fallen to its knees, and in true medieval form, endured the equivalent of a public beheading of its data, its once stellar revenue streams, and its corporate integrity.

Teams of their best data-smiths and strategy people worked around the clock to plug the holes in their sinking ship, but were woefully unprepared for this kind of assault. After weeks of sleepless nights, witnessing one crippling blow after another, a grim new reality began to take hold. In the end, all data had become mangled to the point where it was irretrievable, and all backup systems suffering a similar fate.

TV cameras from around the world watched in horror as a single hand reached up and turned off the final power switch.

With the power turned off, an eerie silence filled the room.

The former giant of global business had breathed its last breath. This was the day that Google died.

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